UnitedHealth Group is at a crucial point on its stock chart. Recent trading will show if it can maintain its recovery from the lows of August or if sellers will take over again. The stock is getting close to a trendline that used to provide support but now acts as resistance. In the past, this trendline helped the stock rise from early 2025, reaching highs between $455.84 and $475.27 by April. Once the stock fell below this line, it turned into resistance at $439.32. After being rejected there, the stock plummeted to the low $240s, erasing previous gains. After hitting bottom in August, the stock rallied to a range of $365-$382. It now faces the declining trendline around $382.96. What happens next will show if buyers can regain strength. UnitedHealth’s latest earnings report revealed earnings per share of $2.92 with a revenue of $113.16 billion for Q3 2025. Although this beat consensus estimates, it narrowly missed the Earnings Whisper number of $2.93 by a small margin. The company’s strong fundamentals contrast with the hesitance among buyers at this resistance point. For a bullish shift, the price needs to close clearly above $382.96 and show follow-through. If resistance holds, the stock might drop back to the $365 range or lower. Bulls should wait for confirmation above $382.96, while bears should keep stop orders above $385. The upcoming trading sessions will indicate which way the stock will go. UnitedHealth Group is facing a key challenge now. After a strong rally from August lows, the stock struggles with significant resistance around $382.96. The next few weeks will likely determine if this recovery is genuine or just a setup for another decline. For traders using derivatives, this uncertainty brings opportunities, as implied volatility is rising. Options pricing for UNH indicates an expected move of about 6% in the next 30 days, which is in the upper range of its historical volatility for the past year. This means option premiums are high, and we need to consider this in our strategies. If the stock makes a strong move and closes above $382.96, it’s a signal for a bullish play. Buying December call options, possibly with a strike price of $390, could capture momentum towards $400. A more cautious strategy would be to use a bull call spread to lower costs, given the high volatility. Alternatively, if the stock falters at the $382.96 resistance, the downtrend remains intact. This bearish perspective is supported by options data, which shows significantly higher prices for puts compared to calls. A setback here would make buying December $370-strike puts an appealing strategy to profit from a potential drop back to the $365 support level. We also need to consider external factors, as the entire healthcare sector is on edge. Investors eagerly await the preliminary 2026 Medicare Advantage rate notice from the government, expected soon. A disappointing announcement could trigger the resistance and push the stock down, regardless of the chart pattern. The sharp decline earlier this year, in 2025, makes this level so critical for traders. When the trendline failed as support, the stock descended from over $430 to the low $240s in just a few months. This history creates hesitation among traders to buy aggressively right below this key resistance. In the end, we seek confirmation, with volume being crucial. A breakout above $382.96 on high volume strengthens the bullish case, while a rejection on low volume favors the bears. Setting up straddles or strangles could be a way to benefit from expected volatility without choosing a direction, although the higher premiums might make this strategy expensive.

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