UOB analysts said EUR/USD jumped sharply and is now overbought on an intraday basis. They added that the pair could still rise toward 1.1945 before it starts to consolidate.
Over the next 1–3 weeks, UOB expects more upside if EUR/USD posts a daily close above 1.1945. If it does, the next target is 1.1980.
Support is at 1.1840. UOB said the bullish view stays valid as long as the pair holds above 1.1840.
The article says it was made with help from an artificial intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. It is credited to the FXStreet Insights Team.
This looks like a setup we have seen before, similar to 2025, where momentum built for another push higher in EUR/USD. Recent data showing Eurozone core inflation holding at a firm 2.2% last week supports this bullish bias. In contrast, the latest US wage growth cooled a bit more than expected, which may mean the Federal Reserve has less need to stay hawkish.
For traders, this points to positioning for a move toward the 1.1980 target from last year’s analysis. One direct way to trade a possible breakout is to buy call options with a strike just above the key 1.1945 level, such as 1.1950, with March expiration. This gives upside exposure while limiting the maximum loss to the premium paid.
Because the rally has been sharp and may be overbought, a more cautious approach could be a bull call spread. For example, buy a 1.1900 call and sell a 1.2000 call. This reduces the upfront cost. It still benefits from a rise, but it helps if the move stalls before a larger breakout.
The 1.1840 level should be watched closely as major support. A clear break below it would suggest the bullish momentum has failed, and any long positions should be reviewed, reduced, or hedged. This was the key “line in the sand” in 2025, and it remains the main defensive level today.
Looking back to the fourth quarter of 2024, similar overbought signals led to a short pause of about two weeks before the uptrend continued strongly. That history suggests that a period of consolidation below 1.1945 does not automatically mean the trend is broken. It may simply be the market pausing before the next leg higher.
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