The Euro (EUR) is expected to trade between 1.1700 and 1.1760. For a longer period, forecasts indicate it will range from 1.1675 to 1.1790. Recently, the EUR fluctuated between 1.1712 and 1.1778, closing slightly down at 1.1729, marking a change of -0.03%. The outlook on EUR remains neutral, with no significant movements observed.

The Euro Outlook

There were worries that EUR could dip below 1.1610, but this did not happen. The Euro even went above 1.1760, reaching 1.1778, which leads to a neutral outlook with expectations of it staying between 1.1675 and 1.1790. In other market news, Gold is nearing $3,900, driven by safe-haven demand. Meanwhile, DOGE and SHIB coins have seen gains this week. The US Dollar faces pressure due to potential issues from the US government shutdown, which could benefit the Euro and other assets. Eurozone inflation was recorded at 2.2% in September, largely due to energy prices, and may decrease over time. This suggests the European Central Bank (ECB) might keep interest rates stable. Litecoin has also gained, trading above $118 as bullish momentum builds.

Trading Strategies

Given the neutral outlook, we expect the EUR/USD to stay within the 1.1675 to 1.1790 range in the upcoming weeks. This creates an opportunity for strategies that benefit from low volatility, such as selling strangles or setting up iron condors. These strategies earn income from premium decay, as long as the price doesn’t move significantly outside this expected range. The current weakness of the US Dollar, driven by uncertainty surrounding the government shutdown, limits any major decline for the Euro. This pattern of dollar weakness was also seen during budget negotiations in the fourth quarter of 2023, suggesting it’s a temporary political issue rather than a fundamental economic shift. As of October 1, 2025, the shutdown is in its second day, risking delays for federal data releases like the non-farm payrolls report. On the Eurozone side, the inflation rate of 2.2% for September gives the ECB little reason to act. This is a drop from the 2.9% inflation rates of late 2023, supporting the view that the ECB will keep rates steady. The lack of strong catalysts from either central bank reinforces the expectation that the currency pair will trade sideways. As the market anticipates range-bound activity, implied volatility for EUR/USD options is likely to decrease in the coming weeks. Selling option premium could be an effective strategy to generate returns in this environment. It’s important to manage positions around the 1.1675 and 1.1790 levels. In contrast to currency markets, Gold shows strong momentum as it nears $3,900 due to safe-haven demand. This marks a significant rise from the $2,350 levels seen in October 2024. Traders looking for an upward play should consider buying call options on gold to capitalize on potential gains driven by ongoing US political uncertainty. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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