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    UOB Group analysts expect the New Zealand dollar to fluctuate between 0.5720 and 0.5760.

    by VT Markets
    /
    Oct 22, 2025

    Broader Timeframe Perspective

    Taking a wider view, the neutral position was set on Friday, October 17, when the spot rate stood at 0.5725. It’s expected that the currency will move between 0.5685 and 0.5770 due to reduced downward pressure. This outlook matches the latest insights from FXStreet’s team, which gathers data from both commercial notes and analysts. With this neutral perspective, the NZD/USD pair is likely to trade sideways. This makes strategies that benefit from low volatility and time decay appealing. Currently, there are no new signs of a breakout, indicating a period of range-bound trading. So, traders might find it better to sell options premiums rather than take a directional position. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s choice to keep its Official Cash Rate at 4.25% earlier this month supports this view. Data from September shows New Zealand’s inflation rate easing to 2.8% annually, leaving little need for further hikes that might lift the kiwi. This economic steadiness reinforces the currency’s floor without sparking a rally.

    Outlook and Strategy

    On the US side, the Federal Reserve is also holding steady, managing core inflation around 3.1% while last month’s retail sales figures were weaker than expected. This combination is preventing a strong move in the US dollar and keeping a cap on the NZD/USD pair. The market is looking for clearer signals from either economy before deciding on a trend. In the coming weeks, we expect the pair to stay within the broader range of 0.5685 to 0.5770. Thus, selling an options strangle with strike prices slightly outside this forecasted range—like a 0.5800 call and a 0.5650 put—could be a smart move. This strategy would take advantage of the currency’s stability as we head into November. This trading environment resembles conditions from late 2023, when both central banks paused to evaluate economic data. During that time, the NZD/USD pair experienced several weeks of low volatility and range-bound trading. We foresee a similar pattern now, rewarding traders who prepare for sideways price action. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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