The US Dollar (USD) might go above 145.00 against the Japanese Yen (JPY), but it seems unlikely to challenge the 145.50 resistance level. In the long run, the USD is expected to stay between 143.00 and 145.50. Recently, the USD showed a strong rebound, gaining momentum that could test the 145.00 level. However, it’s less probable that the USD will push past the key resistance at 145.50. Current support levels are at 144.00 and 143.50, with adjustments made to yesterday’s support at 144.30 and 143.80.

Range Expectations

Over the next 1 to 3 weeks, the USD is projected to stay within the range of 143.00 to 145.50. Predictions indicate that it’s more likely the USD will rise above 145.50 than fall below 143.00. This forecast is not guaranteed and should be approached carefully. We observe a well-defined range for the Dollar-Yen pairing, with movement limited by the upper boundary near 145.50 and the lower boundary near 143.00. The recent rebound in the Dollar against the Yen has increased upward momentum. However, despite this short-term energy, past resistance behavior suggests that moving beyond 145.50 may not happen quickly. If it does break this level, it would indicate a shift in market dynamics, but currently, there is no strong evidence that this resistance is under threat. In the last session, the currency tested support levels, which have now adjusted slightly higher. This shift indicates early buying interest, potentially hinting at an inclination for upward movement. However, the gap between this support and the upper limit at 145.50 remains small, suggesting the pair might trade within a more confined range.

Market Outlook

In the upcoming weeks, there is a slightly higher probability that the Dollar will rise above the upper boundary than drop below the lower boundary at 143.00. For those looking to manage forward positions or adjust margins, this suggests that while the upward momentum is limited, there could be opportunities for short-term gains rather than significant downturns. The likelihood of dropping below 143.00 appears less probable based on current data. With the odds favoring some upward movement, albeit capped, overall positioning should aim for resilience at the lower boundary with tempered expectations for growth. We see the contained movement and slight upward bias as a signal to keep hedges near the lower boundary and selectively reduce them near the upper boundary, taking advantage of range behavior rather than expecting major trends right now. Options volatility remains low, indicating that the broader market anticipates limited movements ahead, supporting this range forecast. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now