The US Dollar (USD) may rise to 152.25 before experiencing a downturn, according to FX analysts at UOB Group. In the short term, the USD could fluctuate between 150.00 and 153.00. The recent surge in the USD, reaching 152.17, was swift but may not lead to much higher values since the strong resistance at 153.00 is likely to hold. If the USD drops below 151.10, it suggests a shift to range trading rather than aiming for 152.25. In recent weeks, analysts predicted the USD might fall below 149.50, which occurred when it dipped to 149.36 before recovering. While the downward trend has slowed, if the USD stays below 151.35, it could revisit the 149.35 level. The overall outlook remains mixed, with the USD possibly trading between 150.00 and 153.00.

Dollar Surge Against Yen

The dollar has unexpectedly risen against the yen, now close to 152.17 after overcoming key resistance. There’s a chance for a final push toward 152.25, but this rapid increase seems excessive. This means any further gains could be limited, with a higher risk of a pullback. This recent strength appears to be influenced by last week’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September 2025, which showed a stubborn rate of 3.8%, exceeding market expectations. This indicates that the Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates high, in contrast to the Bank of Japan’s continued supportive policies. This difference in approach is a major factor driving the dollar’s rise. We must be cautious about potential actions by Japanese authorities to bolster the yen. In the fall of 2022, the Ministry of Finance intervened when the exchange rate crossed 151 to protect their currency. Their tolerance is being tested again, making long positions above 152 quite risky due to the possibility of a rapid reversal.

Mixed Outlook for the USD

Given the mixed outlook, we expect the USD/JPY pair to trade within a 150.00 to 153.00 range for the coming weeks. This makes range-bound strategies, like selling strangles or iron condors with strike prices outside this range, particularly appealing. These strategies would profit if the pair stabilizes without a major breakout or an intervention-induced downturn. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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