**EUR/USD Short-term Outlook** In the last 24 hours, the EUR dropped to a low of 1.1504 before closing at 1.1518, marking a decline of 0.14%. There’s still positive divergence, indicating that EUR might test the 1.1490 level before the risks of recovery increase. It’s unlikely that it will fall below 1.1490, and the support at 1.1450 is expected to hold firm. Resistance sits around 1.1540. If the price breaks above 1.1555, reaching 1.1490 may take longer. Looking at a 1-3 week outlook, a fall below 1.1540 was anticipated. After EUR dropped to 1.1520, analysts noted that 1.1490 remains a crucial level. This viewpoint continues, with the understanding that crossing 1.1580 would indicate EUR isn’t weakening further. If EUR breaks below 1.1490, attention will turn to 1.1450. The FXStreet Insights Team consists of journalists who gather selected market observations from experts, providing insights from both commercial and internal analysts. **Trading Strategy Considerations** With momentum pointing toward a test of the 1.1490 level, consider buying near-term put options. Last week’s disappointing German manufacturing PMI data, which showed a contraction for the second month at 48.5, supports a bearish view on the Euro. This strategy allows for potential profits while limiting initial risk. However, the positive divergence in momentum indicators suggests that any decline could be short-lived and may reverse quickly. As a result, outright shorting futures carries risks. A bear put spread, such as buying a 1.1500 put and selling a 1.1450 put, could define our risk. This strategy would allow us to profit from a moderate decline toward our target range, without the risk of a sudden rally. The dollar’s strength is also contributing to this trend, especially following the strong U.S. jobs report from November 1st, 2025, which showed an increase of 210,000 jobs compared to the expected 180,000. This makes selling out-of-the-money call options with strikes above the 1.1580 resistance level an appealing way to earn premiums. Given the diverging economic data between the two regions, a major Euro rally appears unlikely. Implied volatility for one-month EUR/USD options has risen to 7.8%, reflecting market expectations of a decisive movement as we near important support levels. We observed a similar pattern of weakening European data in the third quarter of 2024, where momentum divergence preceded a final drop before a sharp reversal. This historical insight suggests we should actively manage any bearish positions. If EUR/USD breaks below 1.1490, focus will shift to 1.1450. The recent Eurozone flash CPI estimate for October 2025, which came in below expectations at 2.1%, supports the belief that the European Central Bank will stay dovish. This fundamental backdrop indicates further weakness in the currency pair in the coming weeks. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now