# The Australian Dollar Outlook The Australian Dollar (AUD) may soon test the 0.6460 level, but the main support at 0.6445 is likely to hold. While the outlook is generally negative, FX analysts believe it’s unlikely we will see last month’s low of 0.6445 again. In the past 24 hours, the AUD dropped to 0.6464, going against earlier predictions that it would stay within the 0.6485 to 0.6525 range. Despite this dip, the current momentum suggests it won’t fall below 0.6445. Resistance levels are now at 0.6495 and 0.6510. In the next one to three weeks, the sentiment remains pessimistic, with the previous strong resistance level shifting from 0.6540 to 0.6525. This adjustment is seen as necessary to sustain current trends. ## Market Insights There are also important market insights to consider. Gold is stabilizing near $4,000, the Euro is gaining against the pound amid possible changes from the Bank of England, and copper prices are adjusting due to data from China. Additional updates include Canadian unemployment rates and Libya’s plans to increase oil production. These factors can affect currency movements. We expect the AUD/USD to remain on a downward trend in the coming weeks, but a significant break below 0.6445 seems unlikely. Australia’s inflation rate for October 2025 was a steady 3.8%, leading the Reserve Bank of Australia to maintain interest rates at 4.35% this week. This stance should help stabilize the currency and prevent a sharp decline. Given the revised strong resistance level of 0.6525, selling out-of-the-money call options may present a good opportunity. Selling calls with strike prices around 0.6550 and expirations in two to three weeks seems wise. This strategy lets us collect premiums while expecting little movement in prices. ## External Factors Affecting the Australian Dollar Our bearish outlook is supported by external influences, especially weaker data from China that has impacted commodity markets. Iron ore prices, a major Australian export, have fallen to about $95 per tonne, down significantly from earlier 2025 highs. This trend makes it hard to justify a sustained increase in the Aussie dollar. To cautiously prepare for a potential decline, we might consider a bear put spread. For example, buying a 0.6450 put and selling a 0.6400 put would limit risk if the AUD/USD unexpectedly rises. This strategy allows us to gain from a slow move towards key support levels while avoiding unlimited losses. Regarding volatility, we saw increased levels during the uncertainty of the third quarter of 2025, but conditions have settled. With Australia’s unemployment rate recently rising to 4.2% and a slower hiring pace in the US jobs report, neither central bank seems ready for an immediate policy change. This environment favors strategies that thrive in stable markets with potentially lower volatility. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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