UOB Group analysts suggest the euro could trend upwards, possibly reaching 1.1720 amid range trading.

    by VT Markets
    /
    Aug 11, 2025
    Recent movements in the EUR/USD suggest it will trade between 1.1610 and 1.1670. Over the long term, the Euro is likely to trend upwards, but reaching 1.1720 is still uncertain. In the past 24 hours, the Euro hit a high of 1.1698 last week. It traded quietly between 1.1628 and 1.1679 before settling at 1.1639, which is a drop of 0.22%. Looking ahead at the next one to three weeks, there’s a chance of an upward trend if the ‘strong support’ level at 1.1585 holds. Recently, the EUR/USD has remained stable around 1.1650, despite a quiet market. The US Dollar’s weak performance comes from a better risk sentiment, partly due to expected talks between US and Russian leaders. Additionally, traders are closely watching upcoming US CPI data. The GBP/USD pair is steady above 1.3450, buoyed by different monetary policy expectations from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. At the same time, gold prices have fallen slightly due to positive global risk sentiment connected to US-Russia discussions. In other financial news, the Bank of England recently cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4%. However, officials believe this easing cycle might soon end due to ongoing inflation concerns. Given the EUR/USD’s recent stability, we see a chance in this quiet market. Since the pair is holding its ground, we suggest selling out-of-the-money puts with a strike price below the key support level at 1.0750. This strategy allows us to collect premiums while betting that the pair won’t fall significantly in the weeks ahead. The US Dollar is weakening after US inflation data from July 2025 showed a milder-than-expected increase of 3.1% year-over-year. This has raised the likelihood that the Federal Reserve might think about an interest rate cut this year. For us, this indicates that options strategies betting on a weaker dollar— or at least limited upside—are wise. Reflecting on the past, we remember sharp market changes in late 2023 when traders priced in Fed rate cuts that took a long time to happen. This history cautions us that any Euro upward trend may be slow. Therefore, we are considering bull call spreads on the EUR/USD, which would profit from a gradual rise while reducing our risk if the rally stalls. Meanwhile, the GBP/USD shows strength, consistently trading above 1.2700. This is mainly due to differences in policy between the Bank of England, which kept rates at 5.25% amid stubborn services inflation, and a Federal Reserve that appears more dovish. We see this gap as a reason to stay bullish on the pound against the dollar. Gold is also gaining support, moving towards $2,350 per ounce. The metal benefits from the potential for lower US interest rates and ongoing geopolitical tensions surrounding US-Russia diplomatic efforts. We believe buying call options on gold is a strong way to take advantage of potential further gains from this sentiment.

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