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    UOB Group suggests that further declines in EUR/USD may hinder its ability to reach 1.1450.

    by VT Markets
    /
    Nov 5, 2025
    The EUR/USD exchange rate is unlikely to reach 1.1450 today, and it may continue to decline. The current downward trend is slowing down, supported by positive divergence, suggesting that EUR will probably not hit 1.1450. There is resistance at 1.1500, but it could stabilize above 1.1515. Looking at a longer timeframe, the outlook for the EUR is still negative. Recently, the focus has shifted from 1.1490 to 1.1450 after it dropped to a low of 1.1472. If it goes below 1.1450, market attention might turn to August’s low near 1.1390. A strong resistance level is at 1.1555, which was previously at 1.1580. As we expect the Euro to weaken, there are opportunities to position for a decline. A straightforward approach is to buy EUR/USD put options with strike prices at or below 1.1500. These options will profit if the EUR/USD drops towards the 1.1450 target within the next week or three. This bearish view is backed by recent economic data. The flash Eurozone inflation for October 2025 came in at a low 1.8%, falling faster than expected, which allows the European Central Bank to be cautious. In contrast, last Friday’s US jobs report showed an increase of 205,000 jobs, putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates steady. We have seen similar patterns in the past, especially in 2021-2022, when different policies from the Fed and ECB caused a significant decline in the EUR/USD. The current situation, with a relatively strong US economy and a fragile Eurozone recovery, resembles that time. This historical insight suggests that the easiest path for the pair is downward. For traders who think the Euro won’t rise but want to avoid a sharp drop, a bear call spread is a smart choice. You can sell a call option with a strike price at the strong resistance level of 1.1555 and buy a higher call, such as at 1.1600, to limit your risk. This strategy can generate income and yield profits as long as the Euro stays below that 1.1555 ceiling until the options expire.

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