The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could reach 0.5840 against the US Dollar (USD), followed by a potential pullback. Analysts from UOB Group believe the NZD is now trading in a range between 0.5770 and 0.5865. In the last 24 hours, the NZD hit 0.5831 due to a sudden increase, though momentum seems limited. A test of 0.5840 is possible, but significant resistance is not expected until 0.5865. Support is at 0.5805, and if it falls below 0.5790, the upward trend may be fading.

Range Trading Phase

Over the next 1 to 3 weeks, the NZD’s momentum has slowed since mid-last month. A rise above 0.5815 to 0.5831 suggests the NZD is in a range-trading phase. This is expected to stay within the 0.5770 to 0.5865 range for the near future. FXStreet journalists compiled this information, combining commercial and external insights for your understanding. Readers should do their research before making investment decisions and be aware of the risks involved in trading. This summary is for informational purposes only and does not offer specific investment advice. Based on market trends from October 1st, 2025, we are changing our outlook on the New Zealand Dollar. The previous downward trend seems to have slowed, and we expect the NZD/USD pair to remain in a trading range, indicating a shift away from directional bets toward strategies that benefit from sideways movement.

Trading Strategies

This shift aligns with recent economic data impacting the currency pair. New Zealand’s Quarter 3 inflation, which was 0.7%, exceeded expectations, helping to support the Kiwi dollar by easing the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s need to lower rates. Meanwhile, US employment data from September 2025 showed a slight cooling in the labor market, limiting the US dollar’s recent gains and reinforcing the idea of a range. For derivatives traders, the new expected range of 0.5770 to 0.5865 makes selling options an appealing strategy. Consider selling strangles or iron condors with strike prices outside this range to profit from time passing, as long as the NZD/USD stays within limits. For futures traders, it’s best to avoid seeking major breakouts in the coming weeks. Instead, consider buying near the lower range around 0.5770 and selling near the upper range around 0.5865. Managing risk is critical, as being caught in the middle of the range can be unprofitable. This market pattern is similar to what we saw in late 2023. During that time, a strong Federal Reserve and robust data from New Zealand kept the pair in a sideways trend for several weeks. History shows that such consolidation can continue until a significant catalyst appears. We’ll closely monitor key levels at 0.5770 on the downside and 0.5865 on the upside. A clear break above or below these levels would signal the end of this range-trading phase. Until then, we’ll assume the market will remain balanced within this new range. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now