UOB Group suggests that USD/CNH may fall to 7.1780, but support at 7.1700 is holding strong

    by VT Markets
    /
    Aug 13, 2025
    The US Dollar (USD) may drop to 7.1780, but further declines are not likely to break the support level at 7.1700. Over the longer term, the USD is expected to stay within the range of 7.1700 to 7.2100. In the past 24 hours, we initially predicted that the USD would rise to test 7.2010. However, it actually fluctuated between 7.1814 and 7.1976, closing at 7.1854, which is a 0.14% decrease. Currently, there is slight downward pressure indicating a possible move towards 7.1780, but the support at 7.1700 remains secure. For the next one to three weeks, the focus will continue to be on range trading. Analysis suggests that price movements will likely stay within the 7.1700 to 7.2100 range for the near future. We recommend thorough research before making any investment decisions due to the inherent risks and uncertainties. The market information shared is for informational purposes only, with no guarantee of accuracy. All investment actions carry significant risks, which may lead to losses and emotional challenges. Individuals are responsible for their financial decisions and any potential consequences. As of August 13, 2025, the US Dollar looks set to trade in a tight range against the Chinese Yuan. Key levels to monitor are the support at 7.1700 and the resistance around 7.2100, which we expect to hold for the coming weeks. Recent July 2025 data backs this stable outlook, showing US core inflation steady at 2.9% and non-farm payrolls reporting solid job growth of 195,000. These numbers are unlikely to trigger a major policy change from the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, Chinese authorities appear committed to maintaining a stable Yuan, avoiding large price swings. Given the expected low volatility, strategies that capitalize on time decay and minimal movement look promising. We suggest selling out-of-the-money puts with a strike price below 7.1700 to capture premium, while also selling out-of-the-money calls with a strike above 7.2100 to establish a short strangle position. This options strategy aims to earn premium as time passes, provided the USD/CNH exchange rate stays between the two strike prices. Currently low currency volatility indexes support the idea of selling options rather than buying them. Traders should remain alert for news that may lead to sudden price movements outside this range. Looking back, this market behavior is similar to the latter half of 2023, when central bank guidance created a contained trading environment. Traders who capitalized on the range during that time were generally successful, and we see a similar scenario occurring now, making range-bound strategies our main focus. Thus, we advise against strategies that depend on significant price changes to be profitable. Buying long puts or calls is less advisable right now, as these positions lose value each day the market remains unchanged. The current market favors those who sell volatility, rather than those who buy it.

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