Next week, key events will include US President Trump’s trade deadlines and various monetary policy meetings. We will see rate decisions from the RBA, RBNZ, and BoK, along with important economic data such as UK GDP and the Canadian Jobs Report. OPEC+ is planning to approve a 411k bpd output increase for August. This shift focuses on market share, but compliance levels among members vary. There is a possible risk of oversupply in the second half of the year, especially with US shale production reaching new highs. Swedish CPIF inflation has decreased, prompting a rate cut from the Riksbank. June’s inflation data may affect future policy, although another cut in 2025 is not certain. The RBA is expected to lower rates to 3.60%, as inflation slows and unemployment forecasts rise. The RBNZ might keep rates steady, but uncertainty is high. The US and EU are negotiating trade tariffs with a deadline of July 8th. Four possible outcomes range from a complete breakdown to a framework deal. The FOMC currently plans to keep interest rates steady, with potential cuts later in the year. China’s inflation data could continue to show negative trends. Weak Korean exports are impacting the BoK’s rate decisions, while Norwegian CPI adjustments are influencing Norges Bank predictions. The UK GDP is anticipated to show a slight recovery, while the Canadian Jobs Report could affect BoC easing expectations. The job market and trade relations remain under close watch. We are entering a phase where scheduled decisions and economic indicators will directly influence prices. Monetary committees in the Asia-Pacific region are finalizing their rate assessments, shifting focus to what comes next. The decisions made next week may not change overarching themes, but they will clarify the paths already forming. The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to cut its policy rate again due to signs of weak wage growth and softening employment figures. With inflation falling, market participants are anticipating a cycle of monetary easing, which may create a divergence with more hawkish rate-setters elsewhere. In New Zealand, policymakers are taking a cautious approach. No immediate changes are expected, but every word of the forward guidance will be scrutinized. The same goes for the Korean central bank, as recent export data has weakened and confidence indicators are dropping. Manufacturing pressures are rising, influenced by hesitance in regional demand, leaving room for adjustments when inflation stabilizes. Norwegian consumer prices are drawing attention, leading to updated forecasts. Norges Bank may not play a significant role compared to larger economies, but any tone changes will be seen as a measure of credibility concerning guidance timelines. In Canada, employment statistics are set to be released, where volatility could be greater than anticipated. Any significant deviations in participation or wage growth could alter rate cut timelines. The implications of these figures for the Bank of Canada’s timeline must not be underestimated, especially as global peers hint at easing. Meanwhile, trade relations between the US and China remain tense. The known tariff negotiation deadline is less important than how both sides express their red lines. The four potential paths, ranging from a complete breakdown to a full framework deal, suggest a greater likelihood of delays rather than breakthroughs. From a political perspective, energy markets are adjusting to decisions made by oil-producing nations. The plan to boost oil output in August reflects a shift from coordination to competition. Although official quotas indicate restraint, actual shipments may differ, particularly as US shale continues to break records. The risk of oversupply remains present, adding pricing pressure in future contracts—a trend already seen in certain parts of the futures market. In Sweden, last week’s unexpected inflation adjustment triggered a quick rate cut, but whether this will become a trend remains uncertain. Next month’s inflation data will be crucial for rate path expectations into 2025. This change marked a departure from previous caution, allowing the krona to weaken with less resistance and impacting regional rate differentials for multi-currency portfolios. In the UK, modest gains in GDP are expected. After a slight contraction, even a small recovery offers political and policy relief. The market is keen not only on the overall figure but also on the underlying components. Consumer categories will face heightened scrutiny as discretionary spending patterns influence inflation forecasts. The Federal Reserve plans to keep rates steady for now, with mentions of a possible softening later in the year. Labour market indicators will guide timing, rather than inflation alone; job claims and wage data are likely to be more significant than CPI in shaping terminal rate views. In summary, we are preparing for a period when central bank divergence will become more apparent. The weeks ahead will demand portfolio flexibility rather than a singular direction. Options markets seem well-positioned for volatility, while short-dated strategies are favored over longer commitments. Managing risk now requires focusing on broader environmental shifts rather than solely tracking isolated data sets. Fiscal policies and trade decisions are closely intertwined with monetary credibility assessments. Rates, commodity prices, and rebalancing flows are starting to align—not towards uniformity, but towards greater visibility. This clarity is welcome.

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