The analysis of the Nasdaq 100 uses the Elliott Wave Principle. It suggests that as long as the November 21 low of 23854 holds, the bull market could continue at least until April. However, if the index falls below this point, it might signal the start of a bear market. Right now, the Nasdaq 100 has gone through different waves: it hit a low of 24647, rallied to 25716, and then dropped again to 25086. Based on these trends, it seems likely that the index will rise in waves and could potentially reach around 27225.

Upcoming Movements

In the near future, we expect the index to climb to about 26825 before dropping to around 26155, and then rising again to roughly 27225. If the trend shifts to an overlapping ending diagonal, the index might even rally higher to about 27860. However, once the current wave finishes, a bear market similar to what we saw in 2022 is expected before another long-term recovery begins. Warning levels—25639, 25428, 25086, 24647, and 23854—are key indicators for possible trend reversals. These levels will be adjusted upwards as the index rises. Keep in mind, this analysis is not investment advice but rather an informational overview. From our analysis in early 2025, we predicted that the Nasdaq 100 would likely reach new all-time highs before entering a significant bear market. The index was seen to be in a strong upward wave, supported by key levels established in late 2024. This bullish phase was expected to continue into the second quarter of 2025. Looking back, our forecast proved to be largely correct, as the index rose during the first half of 2025, peaking at about 27,650 in late May before the expected downturn began. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which was around multi-year lows near 13 during that rise, later surged above 30 in the third quarter of 2025, confirming a significant shift in market sentiment. This historical data shows that the market followed the expected path from a bullish phase to a bearish reversal.

Current Trading Environment

Currently, the Nasdaq 100 is trading near 19,800, indicating we are in the “2022-like” bear market that we anticipated. Recent economic data shows a slowdown in the growth of corporate earnings, with Q4 2025 earnings for tech companies falling 5% below analyst expectations. This suggests that any rallies will likely be short-lived and met with selling pressure. For those trading derivatives, it’s crucial to keep an eye on volatility. The high VIX makes buying options costly, so strategies like selling call credit spreads during brief rallies towards resistance may be beneficial. The aim is to profit from falling prices and decreasing implied volatility after a bounce. We see significant resistance around the 21,000 level, a critical support area that failed during the late 2025 decline. Therefore, traders should consider buying put options or setting up bearish debit spreads if the index approaches that zone, providing downside exposure with limited risk. Recent figures show the CBOE equity put/call ratio remains high at 0.95, indicating ongoing demand for downside protection, which supports this bearish outlook. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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