S&P 500 futures follow a clear structure, with prices closely tracking set levels across different timeframes. This was especially noticeable during times of low trading volume, highlighting its guiding influence. On December 22, the market activity around the 6,921 central pivot established the short-term direction. The trend continued as futures stayed above this pivot, forming the upper structure before moving higher.

Price Alignment with Structure

Recent updates show that the index remains in sync with its structural framework. By December 24, prices successfully moved through the Micro-1 to Micro-5 sequence (6,937–6,974), completing the upper part of the two-way structure. This movement aligns with the existing structure, rather than being an acceleration, with trading volume being less significant. As the upper rotation is finished, future price movements will depend on how they react to upcoming reference levels. The S&P 500 futures illustrate how structure affects prices across various timeframes. By maintaining the 6,921 pivot and moving through micro levels, it proves that these levels are set before prices reach them. The focus is now on observing how prices respond to structural guides. The S&P 500 futures have completed their upper rotation, defined by staying above the 6,921 pivot before the holiday. This move concluded the sequence at 6,974, even with fewer traders involved. The current structure suggests a pause or a potential new expansion phase ahead.

Market and Technical Outlook

This technical situation is backed by recent core PCE inflation data, which showed a slight decrease to 2.7% for November 2025. With the cash index just below the 7,000 mark, this data could help push prices higher. It’s important to watch immediate price movements in the coming days. We are entering a traditionally strong time for stocks, often called the Santa Claus rally. Historically, the last trading days of December and the first two of January tend to show an upward trend about 77% of the time. For options traders, this seasonal boost is significant, as implied volatility usually drops in a quiet, rising market. Looking ahead, the broader market focus is on the Federal Reserve’s plans for 2026. Futures markets currently indicate a greater than 70% chance of a rate cut by the second quarter, following a solid November jobs report that wasn’t too hot. This environment may encourage buying on dips, providing support if the market seeks to rebalance below recent highs. The immediate focus is now on the recent high at 6,974 and the old pivot at 6,921. A strong move above the highs would signal further growth, while a drop back to the pivot suggests a rebalancing process. The key is to monitor price reactions at these levels rather than trying to predict what will happen. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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