Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) operates a cloud-based AI lending platform in the United States. It offers personal and auto loans and is traded on Nasdaq under the ticker “UPST.” Since hitting a low of $11.93 in May 2023, UPST has been rising, aiming to go beyond the previous low of $31.40 from April 2025. If it breaks above the high of February 2025, this may indicate a further upward trend. The highest point recorded was $401.49 in October 2021. After May’s low, the stock could achieve five gains. It is set to move higher, having formed important highs and lows throughout 2023 and early 2025. Currently, wave (3) has significantly extended. We expect it to rise to the range of $84.68 – $89.82 while staying above $73.00, before making a correction in wave (4). Foreign exchange trading carries risks that require careful consideration of your goals and tolerance for risk. It’s possible to lose some or all of your initial investment due to high leverage. If you’re unsure about the risks in forex trading, please consult a financial advisor. We continue to monitor the stock’s upward journey from May 2023’s low of $11.93. We anticipate it will surpass the $31.40 mark set in April 2025. A rise above the February 2025 high would confirm more momentum. For those trading derivatives, this could be a chance to position for a short-term rally. We are looking at buying call options due to expire in late August or September to take advantage of this expected movement. Using call spreads may be a smart strategy to counter high implied volatility in this stock, particularly around corporate announcements. This positive outlook is backed by recent macroeconomic trends. Government data from Q2 2025 reported a slight but encouraging increase in consumer loan originations. With the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates steady this summer, the lending environment appears more stable than in 2024. Generally, times without rate hikes boost investor confidence in financial tech companies. A significant event is approaching, with the company’s Q2 earnings report expected around August 12, 2025. Current data shows that short interest remains above 25% of the float, which could lead to a potential short squeeze if positive news arises. This aligns well with the Elliott wave prediction for a strong move towards the target zone of $84.68 – $89.82. We maintain a positive outlook as long as the price stays above the support level of $73.00. If the price drops below this level, it would suggest a corrective wave has begun, prompting a reevaluation of any long positions. We will use this price point as our key level for managing risk in the upcoming weeks.

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