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    US CFTC data showed S&P 500 non-commercial net positions rose to -105.1K from -132.9K.

    by VT Markets
    /
    Feb 14, 2026
    US CFTC data shows S&P 500 NC net positions rose to -105.1K. The previous reading was -132.9K. The latest figure is less negative than before. This means net positioning is moving closer to zero.

    Speculative Positioning Shifts

    Speculative positioning is shifting in a clear way. Large traders are cutting bets that the S&P 500 will fall. The move from a net short of -132.9K contracts to -105.1K suggests bearish conviction is fading. This is the biggest weekly drop in short positions since the fourth quarter of 2025. This shift follows the market volatility seen late last year, which was driven by concerns that inflation would stay high. But government data released last week showed the January Consumer Price Index eased to 2.9%. This was the first reading below 3% in more than eighteen months. That surprise likely pushed traders who were positioned for worse news to rethink their view and cover shorts. This raises the chance of a short-covering rally in the coming weeks. Many traders are still positioned for a decline. If more positive economic news arrives, it could trigger additional buying and lift the market. Because of this, it may be wise to avoid starting new bearish positions until the move stabilises. A similar pattern appeared in late 2022. Very bearish speculative sentiment came before a strong rally through 2023. Historically, when positioning becomes so one-sided and then starts to unwind, the market move that follows can be fast and long-lasting. The fall in short positions now suggests the market may be nearing a similar turning point in early 2026.

    Historical Parallels And Market Implications

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