US EIA data showed a crude oil stocks change of -9.014M for the week of 13 February. The market expectation was 2.1M.
Crude inventories fell by more than 9 million barrels last week. The market had expected a 2 million barrel build. This is a strongly bullish signal for crude oil. It suggests the market is much tighter than expected.
Market Tightness Signals
This inventory drop is backed by solid fundamentals. Refinery utilization has risen to 93.1%, the highest level in two months. Global demand is also absorbing supply, with US crude exports steady near 4.3 million barrels per day. These points suggest the draw was not just a one-time event.
For futures traders, this supports holding or opening long positions in WTI and Brent. We may see prices break above recent resistance. $88 per barrel for WTI looks like a realistic near-term target. Right now, the easier move appears to be higher.
In options, this surprise may keep implied volatility high. One approach is to buy front-month call options to capture potential upside. Another is to sell out-of-the-money put credit spreads to stay bullish while benefiting from higher premiums.
A similar pattern happened in the third quarter of 2025, when several unexpected inventory draws appeared. That period was followed by a 12% rally over the next six weeks. Past moves suggest this type of signal can have follow-through.
Macro Demand Support
Demand also looks supported by the wider economy. The latest jobs report showed an unexpected gain of 225,000 jobs. This points to steady consumer and industrial energy demand through the first half of the year. It also increases the chances that higher energy prices can hold.
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