US equities rose on Tuesday as crude prices fell and first-quarter earnings mostly beat forecasts. The DJIA was up about 0.30% above 49,000, the S&P 500 gained nearly 0.70%, and the Nasdaq added about 1% after an intraday high above 25K.
WTI crude futures dropped 3% to above $102 a barrel and Brent fell 2% to above $111. Iran has reportedly attacked vessels nine times since the ceasefire was announced, while 22.5K mariners were said to be unable to transit the Strait of Hormuz, with hundreds of ships waiting for US naval cover.
Key Earnings Highlights
Pfizer shares rose about 2% after Q1 earnings and revenue beat consensus and it reaffirmed its 2026 outlook. Anheuser-Busch InBev jumped roughly 8% after its first quarterly beer volume growth in three years and results beat estimates.
Intel surged around 10% after a report of early-stage talks with Apple about US-based chip manufacturing. Micron gained another 5% amid higher analyst price targets linked to AI-related high-bandwidth memory demand.
Palantir fell roughly 3% despite record Q1 revenue, an EPS beat, raised guidance, and 85% year-on-year sales growth versus about 75% expected. The stock remained down close to 20% year-to-date.
The ISM Services PMI was 53.6 versus 53.7 expected, and the S&P Global Composite PMI was 51.7 versus 52. JOLTS openings were 6.87 million and the hiring rate rose to 3.5%, ahead of Friday’s NFP forecast of 60K versus 178K prior.
Trade Ideas And Risk Views
The market’s calm view on the Strait of Hormuz is a clear mispricing of risk. We see this as an opportunity to buy cheap, out-of-the-money call options on crude futures or energy sector ETFs. History from the conflicts of the early 2020s shows how quickly energy markets can reprice when a critical chokepoint that handles over 20% of global oil is threatened.
The negative reaction to Palantir’s strong report is a signal that valuation is starting to matter again, especially in the AI sector. We should consider selling call spreads on high-multiple tech names to capitalize on this sentiment and hedge against further multiple compression. With the Nasdaq 100’s forward P/E ratio pushing above 30, we are seeing dynamics reminiscent of the valuation pullback in late 2025.
All eyes are on Friday’s jobs report, where the low 60,000 consensus creates a major binary event for the market. A straddle or strangle on a broad market index like the S&P 500 allows us to profit from a significant move in either direction, whether it’s a surprisingly strong number or a negative print that ignites recession fears. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is currently trading below 18, which seems too complacent given the potential for a multi-standard deviation surprise similar to what we saw in mid-2025.
