Gold futures in New York rose after a report suggested that imports of one-kilo gold bars might face US tariffs. This news goes against previous expectations that gold would be free from import fees. One-kilo gold bars are mainly traded on Comex and constitute a large part of Switzerland’s gold exports to the US. Following the report, New York futures showed a premium over London spot prices not seen since the Covid pandemic, with December contracts trading more than $100 above global prices.

White House Executive Order Speculation

There are reports that the White House may clarify the situation with an executive order, suggesting that gold bar imports might not be taxed. This news temporarily reduced the premium. As of August 11, 2025, the gold market is experiencing significant uncertainty due to mixed reports about US tariffs. Traders are closely monitoring the gap between New York and London gold prices, which remains unusually wide. The premium on December Comex futures, which spiked over $100, is currently around $45, indicating market stress. Traders may consider focusing on the New York-London price spread. If they believe the White House will eliminate the tariff proposal, they might sell the premium by shorting Comex futures and buying London spot gold. On the other hand, those anticipating that tariffs will remain might do the opposite, expecting the spread to widen again. The uncertainty has caused gold’s implied volatility to rise sharply, with the CBOE Gold Volatility Index (GVZ) increasing by over 15% in the past week. This means that options strategies like buying a straddle could be profitable, no matter the final tariff decision, since a significant price move in either direction seems likely.

Market Dislocation Lessons

This situation echoes the market dislocation from March 2020 when pandemic-related disruptions caused a similar spike in premiums. At that time, the spread eventually normalized as logistical issues were resolved. Today’s challenges stem from policy rather than logistics, making the timeline for resolution unpredictable. With the White House yet to make a clear decision, the market is reacting to every rumor. A vague statement from a junior trade official last week only added to the confusion, causing the premium to fluctuate dramatically. This hesitance from the government creates ongoing risks and opportunities. We are focusing on options contracts expiring in the next few weeks, particularly September and October contracts. These contracts are well-placed to benefit from a sudden price shift once a final ruling on the tariffs is announced. Traders should stay alert, as official clarification could happen at any moment. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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