In June, US import prices rose by 0.1%, which was lower than the expected 0.3%, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in July 2025. The import data from the previous month was revised down from 0.0% to -0.4%. In contrast, export prices increased by 0.5%, exceeding the forecast of 0.0%. Last month’s export data was also revised from -0.9% to -0.6%. Year-over-year, import prices fell by 0.2%, the same as the previous month. Meanwhile, export prices rose by 2.8% compared to last year, reaching a peak not seen since January.

Import And Export Price Changes

The report shows that import prices for food, feeds, and beverages dropped by 0.8% in June. Import prices for capital goods stayed the same, while consumer goods saw a 0.4% increase—the largest monthly rise since February 2024. Non-agricultural export prices increased by 0.5%, and agricultural export prices rose by 0.8%, thanks to higher prices for meat and soybeans. This increase helped offset the decline in fruit prices. This report signals an unexpected weakness in import prices, which may suggest inflation is cooling faster than the Federal Reserve expects. Traders might consider positioning themselves for a more dovish monetary policy using derivatives such as call options on SOFR or Fed Funds futures. The contrast between weak import numbers and strong exports presents a unique opportunity in currency markets. A less aggressive central bank typically weakens the currency, making options betting against the U.S. dollar, like calls on the EUR/USD pair, attractive. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has already shown sensitivity to disinflationary news this year, often dropping more than 0.5% in a single trading session after such updates.

Equity Market Opportunities

In equity markets, this environment is usually favorable as lower interest rate expectations decrease the discount rate on future earnings. This trend is especially positive for growth and technology stocks, similar to late 2023 when disinflationary data drove a significant rally in the Nasdaq 100. We suggest using call spreads on the QQQ exchange-traded fund to tap into this potential upside. Details on agricultural exports reveal a targeted opportunity in commodities. The 0.8% price increase, led by soybeans and meat, shows strong international demand and pricing power for U.S. producers. When soybean export prices are robust, futures contracts often follow suit. We should consider buying call options on soybean futures (ZS) to take advantage of this trend. However, the 0.4% rise in imported consumer goods prices—the highest since February 2024—raises some caution. This could signal ongoing inflation for retailers, potentially impacting margins for companies reliant on imports. We will keep an eye on options activity for major retail ETFs to gauge market concern about this issue. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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