US new home sales rose to 0.758 million in November. The previous figure was 0.737 million.
This is a month-on-month increase of 0.021 million. The data compares November with the prior month.
Housing Demand Signals Economic Strength
New home sales rose to 758,000 in November 2025. This was an early sign of underlying economic strength. It suggested that consumers had healthier balance sheets than we previously thought. We now see that this strength has carried into the new year.
More recent data supports this view. January 2026 housing starts beat forecasts, reaching a 1.45 million annualized rate. This strength has helped support homebuilder stocks and related sectors. As a result, we are looking at call options on housing ETFs like XHB to express a bullish view through the spring.
Ongoing economic strength is also shifting interest-rate expectations. The implied probability of a March rate cut in SOFR futures has dropped from over 60% a month ago to just under 20% today. We should consider strategies that benefit if the Federal Reserve stays on hold, such as selling out-of-the-money call options on Treasury bond futures.
That said, the January Consumer Price Index came in slightly hot at 3.2%, which complicates the picture. Sticky inflation, combined with strong housing, could push the Fed to keep a hawkish stance. This raises the risk of near-term volatility and makes options that can benefit from choppy markets—such as straddles on rate-sensitive indices—more attractive.
Volatility And Rate Outlook
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