Jerome Powell talked about how tariffs affect inflation and mentioned that it’s uncertain how strong that effect will be. He stated that current policies are not too strict and that there’s no need for an immediate rate cut, which might create tension with President Trump. The main US stock indices dropped. The NASDAQ fell to 19,489.56, just below its 100-hour moving average of 19,488.85. Buyers pushed the index up to 19,540, showing solid technical support at this level, which points to a cautiously positive short-term outlook. If prices drop below the 100-hour moving average, it could increase downward pressure, aiming for the 200-hour moving average at 19,199.99. The S&P index also went below its 100-hour moving average, trading at 5977.96, down 4.8 points, or 0.8% for the day. If the NASDAQ continues to trade below this level, it may signal further bearish trends, with traders eyeing the 200-hour moving average at 5926.72. This important level was last broken on April 30, suggesting the market could face challenges if it happens again. Powell’s statements show there’s still uncertainty about how tariffs will affect consumer prices. He emphasized that there’s no urgent need to ease monetary policy, indicating that the current federal funds rate is neither hindering nor boosting growth. His comments suggest a neutral stance rather than a move toward easing. This approach counters expectations for quick rate cuts, especially due to political pressure. Powell’s focus on economic data over political influence reinforces the autonomy of monetary decisions. From a technical perspective, we’re seeing a fragile balance. When the NASDAQ dipped below its 100-hour moving average but quickly recovered, we viewed it as a classic test-and-hold pattern. This quick rebound suggests buyers see value at this level. However, there’s little room for mistakes. If it decisively drops below the average, attention will quickly shift to the 200-hour level, a deeper threshold that previously held firm. Losing that support would weaken the market’s recent resilience. In contrast, the S&P chart offers less reassurance. Trading below its 100-hour average hints at a shift in momentum away from buyers toward sellers. Though the drop is not alarming, it has unsettled short-term bullish outlooks. Sustained trading below this average generally invites more downward interest, and traders are closely monitoring for signs of continuation. If prices approach the 200-hour average, which held up well in late April, it signals that sellers are in control. We are at a crucial point where technical signs will either support recent stability or start to unravel it. We need to pay attention not only to price movements but also to volume and follow-through that confirm intent. Dropping below key moving averages rarely happens in isolation; it usually leads to momentum-driven trades that extend beyond daily fluctuations. In this context, we are prepared to react quickly if the markets fall further. As always, it’s important to be ready. Maintaining cautious optimism is still advisable, but we can now see the key trigger points. If vital averages falter, we won’t be caught off guard.

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