US wholesale inventories rose 0.2% in December, in line with forecasts.
The data shows a small monthly rise in stock held by wholesalers across the United States.
Inventory Data Signals Stability
The December 2025 wholesale inventory report matched expectations. That suggests the economy is not facing any major shocks. It also points to calmer markets in the weeks ahead. We see this as a sign that the slowdown that began in mid-2025 has started to level out.
Steady inventory growth also supports the view that inflation is easing. Last week’s January 2026 Consumer Price Index showed inflation running at a 2.7% annual rate. Because of this, more traders expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates later this year, which could support equity index futures. Traders may want to follow options on Fed Funds futures, as pricing for the June and September meetings tends to pick up activity.
With fewer surprises in the data, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has continued to move lower. It recently hit a six-month low of 13.5. This setup can favor strategies that benefit from low volatility, such as covered call selling or iron condors on broad indexes like the S&P 500. At the same time, demand for protective put options has decreased.
The inventory balance also offers clues by sector. Industrials and materials look steady, since they are not seeing a sharp build-up in unsold goods. In contrast, this report—along with a soft January 2026 retail sales release—points to weaker consumer demand. That could create opportunities for bearish trades in consumer discretionary stocks.
Positioning For First Half 2026
This slow but stable backdrop looks similar to 2019, before the pandemic. In that period, momentum and growth stocks led the market, while cyclical stocks trailed. A similar pattern could play out in the first half of 2026. That would favor technology and healthcare derivatives over positions tied to banking or energy.
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