USD/CHF fell below 0.7800 after moving under the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at 0.7828. It then tested a trendline and last week’s low at 0.7775, and was down 0.37% at the time of writing.
The downtrend remains in place, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) moving lower and dropping past its prior trough of 39. A break below 0.7775 could open a move to the 10 March low at 0.7747.
Key Support Levels Ahead
If 0.7747 gives way, the next support level cited is the 2 March low at 0.7668. Further declines would depend on price action below these levels.
For a rebound, price would need to regain 0.7800 and reclaim the 50-day SMA at 0.7828. After that, resistance levels noted are the 100-day SMA at 0.7868 and the 20-day SMA at 0.7906.
A separate currency table reported the Swiss franc’s percentage moves against major currencies today. It stated the Swiss franc was strongest against the Japanese yen.
We remember the bearish setup from early 2025 when the pair broke decisively below the 0.7800 handle. That downtrend extended towards the 0.7668 target mentioned at the time before finding a bottom later that year. The market picture today is vastly different, with the pair having established a strong uptrend throughout the last twelve months.
Options Strategy Considerations
Currently, the USD/CHF is trading near 0.9120, a level not seen since late 2024. This strength is underpinned by diverging monetary policies, as last week’s US inflation data came in at 3.1%, cementing expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening. Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank is signaling potential rate cuts after industrial production figures for the first quarter of 2026 showed a 0.5% contraction.
Given this bullish momentum, derivative traders should consider strategies that profit from further upside in the coming weeks. Buying at-the-money call options provides direct exposure to a potential rally towards the 0.9200 resistance level. For a more risk-defined approach, a bull call spread could be implemented to lower the upfront cost while still capturing gains from a steady advance.
We must also consider that implied volatility has been creeping up, currently sitting around 8.5% for 1-month options. While this makes buying options slightly more expensive, it reflects the market’s anticipation of a significant move. Therefore, selling out-of-the-money put options could also be an attractive strategy to collect premium, provided traders are comfortable buying the pair at a lower price if assigned.
