Upward Momentum Building
The RSI is above 50 and moving towards overbought territory, pointing to stronger upward momentum. A break above 0.7946 would put focus on 0.8000, and then the YTD high at 0.8040. If 0.8040 is cleared, the next resistance level is the 5 November swing high at 0.8124. Looking back at the analysis from late 2025, we saw how buyers were targeting the 200-day moving average after bouncing from 0.7900. That bullish momentum did carry through, eventually pushing the pair past the 0.8124 resistance level in early 2026. The geopolitical drivers mentioned at the time provided a strong tailwind for the US Dollar. As of today, March 26, 2026, the fundamental picture has shifted to central bank policy divergence. The Swiss National Bank executed a surprise 25 basis point interest rate cut last week, weakening the franc as they become the first major central bank to ease policy. This contrasts sharply with the US, where recent inflation data came in at a stubborn 2.8%, suggesting the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady for longer.Strategy And Key Levels
This policy gap suggests we should be positioning for further USD/CHF strength in the coming weeks. Buying call options with an expiration in late April or May provides a way to capture this expected upward move with a defined risk. With current implied volatility around 7.2%, strikes around the 0.8350 level appear attractive for a potential test of the year-to-date highs. The key technical level to watch is the support around 0.8210, which has held firm since the SNB’s announcement. As long as we remain above this floor, the path of least resistance is higher. A sustained break above 0.8290 would be our signal that the next leg of the rally is underway. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.
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