The USD/CHF has risen to nearly 0.7930 during Asian trading due to easing US-China trade tensions. The US Dollar Index is up by 0.12% to 98.70, continuing the US Dollar’s upward trend for two days. This rise follows Donald Trump’s hints at a possible deal with China, combined with signs that the US government shutdown may end, boosting market confidence. The release of delayed inflation data, impacted by the shutdown, is expected to be significant this week.

Swiss Economic Concerns

The Swiss Franc is not showing much movement, despite worries about Switzerland’s economic forecast. SECO estimates the country will see a 1.3% economic growth this year, which is below average. Additionally, it has cut the 2026 GDP growth forecast from 1.2% to 0.9%. The US Dollar remains strong globally, accounting for over 88% of foreign exchange trades, with a daily average of $6.6 trillion in 2022. The Federal Reserve’s monetary policies greatly affect its value. The Fed primarily uses interest rate adjustments to manage inflation and employment. Quantitative easing and tightening are used in extreme economic situations to either weaken or strengthen the US Dollar. This strategy helps manage credit flow, which was crucial during the 2008 financial crisis. The current rise in the USD/CHF pair to near 0.7930 offers a good opportunity for us. The easing tensions in US-China trade and the potential reopening of the US government create favorable conditions for the US Dollar. We should position ourselves for continued, though modest, dollar strength against the franc.

Market Optimism and Strategic Moves

In the US, markets are optimistic ahead of the meeting between Trump and Xi, similar to the sentiment seen during the temporary trade truces of 2018-2019. Recent shipping data from the Port of Los Angeles shows a 2.1% increase in container volume from China in the third quarter of 2025. This indicates that trade relations are beginning to improve. If the meeting goes well, the dollar may rise further. Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc faces challenges from a weakening domestic economy. The new forecast cutting the 2026 GDP growth to just 0.9% suggests the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will likely continue its supportive policies. With Swiss inflation remaining low at 1.1% year-over-year, there’s no pressure for the SNB to tighten its policies. Given this situation, we are considering buying USD/CHF call options with strike prices above the significant 0.8000 level. Opting for options that expire in mid-to-late November gives us time to see how the market reacts to the US-China summit and upcoming US inflation data. This approach offers potential gains while keeping risks limited. The main risk in this trade is this Friday’s delayed US CPI report. The market has not received much data lately, and a lower-than-expected increase of 0.3% month-over-month in core inflation could quickly weaken the dollar’s recent gains. We must be ready for volatility, as a disappointing inflation figure could lower expectations for continued Federal Reserve tightening. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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