USD/CHF has fallen for a fourth straight trading day, down 0.14%. Over the past three days, it has traded in a tight 0.7718–0.7757 range. It was last at 0.7729, just above the 20-day SMA at 0.7726.
Price action is consolidating in a symmetrical triangle within a broader downtrend. A break below triangle support around 0.7650–0.7665 would signal a likely continuation lower.
Technical Momentum Remains Bearish
The RSI remains bearish and is trending lower, which keeps downside risks in focus. If support breaks, the pair could re-test the year-to-date low at 0.7603 (set on 27 January). Below that, 0.7600 is the next level, followed by the August 2011 low at 0.7069.
On the upside, rebounds may be limited by triangle resistance near 0.7772 and the 0.7800 level. Additional resistance is seen at the 50-day SMA (0.7841) and the 100-day SMA (0.7911).
At this point in 2025, USD/CHF was also consolidating in a bearish symmetrical triangle, which pointed to a continuation of the downtrend. The pattern later broke down, with sellers pushing the pair below the key support trendline near 0.7650. The bearish RSI momentum noted at the time also proved to be a useful signal for the subsequent decline.
The selloff accelerated in the second half of 2025. A key driver was the Swiss National Bank keeping its policy rate at 1.75% to fight inflation, which was last reported in January 2026 at a still-elevated 2.1% year-over-year. This stance has contrasted with the Federal Reserve’s pause, narrowing the rate gap and supporting the franc. Since then, the pair has broken below the 2025 low of 0.7603 and moved into a new, lower trading range.
Options Positioning For Continued Weakness
Right now, the pair is finding temporary support near 0.7420, but the broader technical setup remains weak. Any rally toward the 0.7500 psychological level may attract heavy selling. Momentum still suggests the path of least resistance is lower.
Over the coming weeks, selling call options or using bear call spreads with strikes near 0.7500 may offer an attractive approach. This can generate premium while keeping risk defined, based on the view that upside moves may be short-lived. With limited upside potential, selling into strength may be preferable to buying dips.
Traders expecting the main downtrend to continue could also consider buying put options with strikes below 0.7400. This offers a defined-risk way to position for a possible move toward multi-year lows. The next Swiss inflation report will be important to watch, as a higher-than-expected reading could trigger another wave of USD/CHF selling.
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