Governor Waller adopted a more cautious approach after the Federal Reserve chose to keep interest rates steady. He isn’t too worried about how tariffs affect inflation and hinted that rate cuts might happen as soon as July. The market reacted positively. The Dow rose by 111 points, the Nasdaq went up by 65 points, and the S&P climbed by 15.13 points. However, the US dollar saw a slight drop following Waller’s comments. Looking at specific currency pairs, the USDJPY fell from a high of 145.71 to 145.54. Last week, it peaked at 145.47, and a key retracement level from May is at 145.375. If it goes lower than these levels, it might show that sellers are gaining control. The USDCHF also dropped slightly from a high of 0.8176 to 0.8162. The 100 and 200-hour moving averages are at 0.8159. If the price falls below these averages, it could shift the short-term trend toward the downside. Waller’s unexpected shift toward easing has raised expectations for a rate cut sooner than anticipated, likely in July. He downplayed the inflation risks from tariffs, giving markets the confidence to take more risks. The swift response in equity indices showed that investors are focusing on future guidance rather than the current pause in policy. Bond markets are also adjusting, responding to his views by changing yield curves. While stock gains were notable, the currency markets had a more mixed response. The dollar’s dip wasn’t drastic but allowed short-term traders to reposition. Against the yen, the dollar fell below last week’s high and crucial retracement levels from May’s gains. From a trading viewpoint, breaking below 145.47 brings attention to the midpoint of the previous upward movement. This suggests that sellers are starting to take charge again, albeit quietly, but with growing momentum. If the price stays below that 50% level, further downward movement is likely in the upcoming sessions. We’ve also noticed subtle but important changes in the USDCHF rate. After hitting 0.8176 earlier, it slid back towards the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages around 0.8159. This is a significant price level; dropping below this range won’t be ignored. Technical traders will pay close attention here, as sustained selling pressure could push the bias more decisively toward the bearish side. Given these developments, we’ve adjusted our immediate positioning strategies. It’s now clearer how to react. Observing how price interacts with key technical points will be more important than broad economic themes for the time being. If intraday volatility increases, it will be driven by recalibrated expectations rather than surprises. While entries and exits might tighten, the opportunities will become more defined.

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