USD/JPY traded around 160.20 on Friday, keeping the yen slightly pressured ahead of next week’s Bank of Japan policy decision and the first Federal Reserve meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh. Expectations for a BoJ rate rise are building, but the currency’s support may depend on whether officials also signal further tightening. Attention will also turn to the FOMC statement, forecasts and press conference for clues on whether the Fed keeps a hawkish bias later this year.
In short-term trade, USD/JPY was at 160.21 on the four-hour chart. It held above the 100-period SMA at 159.72, while being capped below the 20-period SMA near 160.35, leaving the tone broadly neutral. The RSI sat around 49. Resistance clustered at 160.34, alongside 160.35 and 160.38, while support was seen at 160.17 and then 159.96, with 159.72 acting as a deeper technical floor.
Policy Risks and Volatility Ahead of Key Central Bank Meetings
We see the USD/JPY trading near 160.20, a level that has historically triggered sharp reactions from authorities. Given the Ministry of Finance’s interventions back in April and May of 2024 when the rate last breached 160, we are on high alert for similar action in the coming weeks. This makes holding unhedged long positions extremely risky.
While expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike are growing, we believe the market’s reaction will depend entirely on future guidance. With Japan’s core inflation holding at 2.4%, a single rate hike without a commitment to more will likely be seen as a policy failure and could weaken the Yen further. A dovish hike could unexpectedly propel the pair toward 162.
Across the Pacific, all eyes are on Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting, and we anticipate a more hawkish tone than his predecessor. US core PCE inflation remains sticky at 2.9%, giving him little room to signal any dovish pivot and likely keeping the US dollar supported. His commentary will be critical in setting the dollar’s trajectory for the rest of the year.
Trading Strategies for Elevated Uncertainty
This dual uncertainty from both central banks creates a perfect setup for elevated volatility, not a clear directional trade. We are advising traders to buy volatility through instruments like one-week straddles, which profit from a large price move in either direction after the meetings. One-week implied volatility for USD/JPY has already climbed to 11.8%, reflecting the market’s nervousness.
For those with a slight bullish bias on USD/JPY, we suggest using call options to capture potential upside while defining risk. Pairing these with cheaper, out-of-the-money puts can provide a hedge against a surprise hawkish BoJ announcement or sudden intervention. This strategy allows for participation in a rally while capping potential losses.
