USD/JPY has fallen for four straight days and is trading just below 153.00 in the Asian session, near a two-week low. The weekly slide came after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi won a landslide election victory.
Markets now expect the Bank of Japan to keep moving toward more rate hikes, which supports the yen. The US dollar is also under pressure as traders price in more Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 and worry about the Fed’s independence.
Key Levels And Trend
Price is holding just above the 200-day EMA near 152.50. The next support is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 140.02–159.35 move, around 152.00–151.95. A daily close below that area could open the door to the 50% retracement at 149.68.
MACD remains bearish, with the MACD line below the signal line and below zero. The negative histogram is also widening. RSI is near 36 and still falling, which suggests downside momentum is still strong.
If the pair holds above the 38.2% retracement and moves back above the 200-day EMA, selling pressure may ease. But if USD/JPY breaks and holds below the 200-day EMA, the risk of a deeper drop increases.
USD/JPY remains under pressure and has struggled to get back above 153.00 for several sessions. The fundamental backdrop still points to a firmer yen, mainly because traders expect more BOJ rate hikes. That view strengthened after Prime Minister Takaichi’s landslide win in 2025.
For traders, the key level is the 200-day moving average around 152.50. A clear break and close below it could trigger a sharper selloff. If you are bearish, one way to express that view is to buy put options with a strike near 152.00. This could position you for a move toward the 149.70 area while keeping risk defined.
Options Strategy And Volatility
If the 152.00–152.50 support zone holds, the selloff could pause. In that case, selling out-of-the-money puts or using a bull put spread could be a way to earn premium, based on the idea that the floor will hold. Still, with MACD and other signals leaning bearish, any rebound may be brief and could attract fresh selling.
It is also worth remembering the sharp moves seen in late 2022, when USD/JPY dropped hard after policy shifts. The current setup looks similar, which means a break of long-term support could bring higher volatility. That is why defined-risk options trades may be more appealing than trading spot or futures outright.
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