The USD has fallen after the latest lower PPI data and an increase in both initial and continuing jobless claims. This marks a shift from typical employment trends. Continuing claims have risen, while initial claims are nearing their peak since 2022. Weaker PPI and CPI data could lead to a better PCE outcome. Analysts expect new PCE estimates later today. In currency pairs, EURUSD has reached new highs not seen since 2021, targeting the range of 1.1683–1.16916, with support currently at 1.15726. Buyers are in control. USDJPY has dropped below its 100 and 200-day moving averages on the 4-hour chart, with key support between 142.10 and 142.347. GBPUSD has hit a new high for the year, aiming for a swing area from 2022 around 1.36445. Beyond that level, traders are looking at the 50% midpoint from a 2014 high to a 2022 low at 1.37683. Today’s high was 1.3622. USDCHF is nearing a swing low from April 2025, between 0.8097 and 0.81288, with the 2025 low at 0.80389 as the next target. Currently at 0.8119, its nearest risk lies at the upper level of the swing area at 0.81288. This initial analysis shows that weakness in the job market, indicated by both initial and continuing claims, is shifting the narrative around US economic strength. Normally, jobs data serves as a strong anchor, but with continuing claims rising and initial claims close to a two-year peak, it suggests hiring is not as robust as in previous inflation dips. This indicates a cooling consumer environment, likely reflected in upcoming core inflation data. Recent lower PPI and CPI readings support this outlook. Coupled with disappointing job reports, the likelihood of a decrease in PCE inflation—the Fed’s preferred measure—grows stronger. Ahead of today’s PCE release, estimates are generally being revised down due to mild pipeline inflation and reduced household income expectations. Many economic models are adjusting their forecasts in real time, reflecting this trend. Thus, the decline of the US dollar isn’t just a technical issue; it shows decreasing confidence in yield advantage. The euro-dollar has responded, with levels now reaching highs not seen since late 2021. The momentum supports further exploration of the 1.1683–1.1691 area, and unless the price drops below 1.1572 with momentum, the upward trend remains intact. In the yen pair, the situation appears more fragile. Prices have dropped below both the 100 and 200-period moving averages on the four-hour chart, indicating the pressure is likely to continue. We are now watching the support cluster between 142.10 and 142.35—if this breaks on volume, the focus will shift lower. The breaks below key averages are clear, showing that sellers are in control, and until the pair regains these averages, the short-term outlook remains bearish. Meanwhile, sterling has continued its upward trend, moving into an area that proved challenging during previous moves—the swing area from 2022. The price has dipped just below this range today, so that’s where we will focus in the upcoming sessions. If it breaks through cleanly, attention will naturally turn to the 50% retracement level from the 2014 high to the post-Brexit low—1.3768. This level attracts medium-term buyers, and given the recent momentum, it’s within reach. For the franc, price action has been hovering around a support zone that previously attracted buyers in April 2025. At the 0.8119 mark, it’s approaching the 0.8038 low again. What happens around this point is crucial. A sustained drop below this low would mark new territory, targeting psychological and structural levels even further down. Near-term risk is clearly defined—staying above the upper band at 0.8128 would stabilize the price, but dropping below would favor sellers. Overall, interest rate expectations are subtly shifting, influencing market positioning. The expectation for a less aggressive Fed is already being factored into bond and currency prices. Short-term traders should monitor key levels, keep an eye on incoming inflation data, and remain responsive to price movements.

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