USDCAD is facing downward pressure, currently sitting around 1.3591 as sellers push to test yesterday’s low. Over the past few hours, the pair has moved away from the 100-hour moving average, even though buyers briefly brought it above that level yesterday. Attempts to rise above the 50% retracement from June were unsuccessful. During the European and early North American sessions, the pair rose above the moving average but didn’t gain momentum. Eventually, the price dropped, with buyers turning into sellers. The current attempt to retest the 1.3591 low could lead to further drops to mid-June levels of 1.3539 and 1.3554. If the pair fails to stay above these support levels, the downward trend will continue. However, moving above 1.3617 could shift the focus back to the 100-hour moving average for another challenge. Right now, sellers are in control. The pair has declined steadily since failing to hold near mid-June Fibonacci levels. Yesterday’s brief recovery did not last and couldn’t break above key resistance points. This hesitation indicated a shift towards selling rather than hoping for a rebound. The failed attempt to go above the 50% retracement shows that buyers lack momentum. Traders who once felt optimistic about a strong base near the moving averages are now reconsidering. As prices fell back below those averages without hesitation, it confirmed the shifting sentiment. Strong selling interest returned as the pair approached 1.3617, which has not provided reliable support. Attention is now on nearby support zones that held earlier this month—specifically around 1.3554 and 1.3539. These levels are likely to face pressure soon. With prices hovering around 1.3591 and consistently below the 100-hour mark, market positioning favors those looking to ride retracements lower instead of betting on returns to recent highs. Support levels are no longer just theoretical—they are being tested. Failing to hold above them could lead to multi-day weakness. Any bullish effort will need more than a brief glance above resistance; it must achieve consecutive hourly closes above 1.3617. Until that happens with clear intent and volume, prices will likely continue to trend lower. Volatility has been lower than usual for June, highlighting these tighter ranges. We should expect sharper movements once either support fails or buyers make a significant recovery. In the meantime, as long as reactions to retracement levels remain weak and moving averages stay untested from below, the preference is for continuation plays toward the remaining June lows. We are watching for strength—or weakness—around 1.3554 and 1.3539. A strong break below these levels could not only eliminate near-term support but also indicate a shift in broader sentiment toward a longer pullback phase.

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