USDCHF has risen above the swing area between 0.8054 and 0.80628, reaching new highs for July. Prices have briefly fluctuated around this zone, and the latest dip only fell to 0.80545, showing that buyers are active.

Short-Term Buyer Control

If USDCHF drops below 0.80545, it would break the short-term bullish trend. As long as this level holds, buyers remain in charge. The next important target is the 38.2% retracement from the May high to July low at 0.8102. Moving above this level indicates a stronger bullish trend after a period of decline. Recent trends include: – Support at the 100-hour moving average, which is at 0.7975. – A clear break above the 200-hour moving average at 0.79828, which is now trending upward. – Early Asian session support between 0.8017 and 0.8023, confirming buyer strength. Even with recent short-term gains, USDCHF is down 11.14% for the year from its December close of 0.9077. The decline this year reached its lowest levels since 2011, bottoming out at 0.78719. However, climbing above April’s low of 0.8032 and the key hourly swing area suggests buyers are trying to stabilize the currency pair and push it higher. The main question is whether the bullish momentum will continue or if sellers will take control again. Today is July 29, 2025. The recent rise above 0.8054 signals a chance for short-term bullish plays. Traders may consider buying call options with expiries in mid-August to take advantage of this momentum. The immediate target is to ride the wave to the 0.8102 resistance level. This movement is supported by a growing policy gap between the Federal Reserve and the Swiss National Bank. Recent U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data for June showed a year-over-year increase of 2.3%, slightly above expectations. This suggests continuing price pressures, keeping the Fed’s stance hawkish. In contrast, the SNB has remained dovish to avoid excessive appreciation of the franc, which could hurt Swiss exports.

Key Resistance and Risk Management

As the pair approaches the key resistance at 0.8102, caution is warranted. This level is a significant 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the entire drop from May to July. Failing to break through this level would suggest that sellers are coming back. If we see a clear rejection from this zone, we might consider buying put options or closing bullish positions. For those wanting to manage risk, a bull call spread might be effective in the coming weeks. This could involve buying an August 0.8050 call option and selling an August 0.8100 call option. This strategy caps both potential profit and loss, allowing for gains if prices rise while limiting risk if the rally loses steam before reaching the target. Historically, major reversals in USDCHF have required a fundamental change, not just a bounce. While the currency has recovered from the 0.78719 low earlier this month, it remains well below the 0.9077 level seen at the beginning of the year. This ongoing bearish trend means that any bullish positions must be handled with care. Ultimately, the market is assessing whether this represents a true recovery or just a temporary bounce in a longer-term bearish trend. A sustained break above 0.8102 would indicate a significant shift, whereas dropping back below 0.8054 would suggest that sellers are still dominant. The upcoming price action will provide further direction. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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