Buyers Control Momentum

The USDCHF is rising, moving above the 100 and 200-hour moving averages at approximately 0.8076. This upward trend is supported by stronger-than-expected PPI data, which showed a 0.9% increase in July. The price has also exceeded the 38.2% retracement level at 0.80711. Last week, this level limited gains during the Asian session before the price dropped. Currently, the price is moving away from the moving averages near 0.8075, giving buyers an advantage if it stays above these levels. The next target is the resistance around 0.80893 from last week’s trading. If the price breaks this level, it could gain further upward momentum. A recent sell-off of the dollar caused USDCHF to dip below the 50% retracement, entering the support zone between 0.8017 and 0.80233. Here, selling pressure eased, and the market started to recover. Today’s movement above 0.8071 and 0.80756 shows that buyers are in control, shifting the momentum in their favor. Looking at the price action from August 14, 2025, the immediate outlook for USDCHF is positive. The significant break above 0.8075 was driven by a US Producer Price Index for July that was much higher than anticipated, showing a 0.9% increase compared to a forecast of only 0.3%. As long as the price holds above these key moving averages, buyers hold the technical edge in the coming days. Derivative traders might consider buying call options with strike prices at or above the next target of 0.80893. This strategy allows them to take advantage of potential continued gains while managing risk. The strength of today’s movement suggests that the upward trend could persist into next week.

Current Fundamental Backdrop

We believe that the dollar’s strength is amplified due to a widening policy gap with a dovish Swiss National Bank. Recent Swiss inflation rates remain low, around 1.2%, much lower than rates in the United States. This limits the SNB’s reasons to adopt a hawkish stance similar to the US Federal Reserve. This situation resembles the dynamics seen in 2022, when the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate hikes surpassed those of the SNB, leading to ongoing dollar strength. The current economic environment suggests a similar scenario, which could support a higher USDCHF over the next few weeks. For a more cautious approach, consider selling out-of-the-money put spreads with a short strike below the 0.8020 support zone. This strategy would profit if prices stay above recent lows, benefiting from both time decay and the current bullish outlook. The main risk to this view would be a drop below the 0.8071 level. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now