The USDJPY has reached a new session high, exceeding 149.53 and the 50% retracement level at 149.375. It’s also crossed the key psychological barrier of 150.00, currently sitting at 150.26. The 200-day moving average and the 50% midpoint now act as solid support levels, indicating a bullish trend when trading remains above them. The next target is the April swing high at 150.48. If this level is broken, the next resistance could be around 151.20, followed by the 61.8% retracement at 151.616.

Japanese Interest Rates

The Bank of Japan has kept its interest rates steady with no plans for an increase. With the US and EU also holding rates, Japan’s low rates lead to a weaker yen, pushing USDJPY higher. Recent US dollar purchases during dips in 2025 have added momentum to this currency pair. Now that USDJPY is clearly above 150.00, it signals a strong case for bullish strategies. The break above the 200-day moving average indicates a longer-term shift in momentum. Derivative traders might want to take positions that benefit from the pair’s continued rise in the coming weeks. This upward trend is supported by strong economic data from the US. The Federal Reserve’s decision to keep rates steady is backed by the June jobs report, which showed a robust gain of 250,000 jobs—significantly exceeding expectations. Additionally, the recent US CPI data for June is at 3.4%, placing pressure on the Fed to avoid rate cuts.

Japanese Economic Picture

On the other hand, Japan’s economic situation keeps the Bank of Japan on hold, affecting the yen negatively. The latest national inflation figures for June 2025 show only 1.8%, which is below the central bank’s target. This supports their dovish approach and increases the interest rate gap with the US, making the dollar more attractive. For derivative trades, buying call options with strike prices near the next resistance levels seems promising. Specifically, we’re looking at August and September contracts with strikes around 151.00 or 151.50 to take advantage of the possible rise. This strategy allows for upside while limiting risk to the premium paid. However, we must remember past events as we approach these higher levels. We recall the Ministry of Finance’s intervention in the fall of 2022 when USDJPY was in the 150-152 range. Traders should consider placing tight stop-losses on long futures positions or buying inexpensive out-of-the-money put options to hedge against a sudden downturn. Watch for key levels: the recently broken 200-day moving average at 149.53 and the support area at 149.37. If prices fall below these points, it would indicate a failed bullish break. As long as we remain above this zone, the path of least resistance continues to favor an upward move for USDJPY. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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