USDJPY started the day with a small drop but quickly turned upward with a steady climb and few corrections. Initially, the pair fell below its 200-hour moving average during the Asian session, but buyers quickly pushed it back up around Friday’s low. After breaking the early session high of about 144.63, the pair gained momentum and reached new highs. On the hourly chart, USDJPY is approaching the 61.8% retracement level of the June 23 high at 145.978. This zone, ranging from 145.919 to 146.288, has been a tough barrier in recent months. The pair briefly broke this range in May and late June, but those moves didn’t last. Over the past two months, the broader range has been from 142.105 to 146.288. A firm move above 146.288 would suggest a stronger medium-term bullish trend.

Short-Term Support Levels

Right now, short-term support levels are at 145.347, which is the 50% retracement of June’s high-to-low movement, and at 145.216, the high from last week. Staying above these levels keeps buying momentum strong during the day. However, if the pair falls below these levels, it might weaken bullish interest and turn attention back to the 200-hour moving average. As the pair approaches tough resistance levels, it’s vital to pay close attention. The zone between 145.919 and 146.288 has often acted like a ceiling. While the pair has occasionally broken through this area, those moves have been short-lived, often lacking strong follow-up support. A clear break above this upper edge, confirmed with increased volume, would strongly suggest that buyers have regained control beyond short-term tactics. The timing of this move is interesting. The market seems to be responding not just to technical levels, but also to broader market dynamics. We see that quick buying occurs during small corrections in rallies, and dips are shallow, indicating strong buyer interest. However, previous attempts to stay above 146.288 have lost momentum. If current price levels only attract limited interest, we could see another stall, especially if momentum indicators start to flatten or diverge from price movements.

Key Short-Term Levels

Key short-term levels are critical now. The 145.347 mark, which is the midpoint of June’s highs and lows, continues to be important. If there’s a clear daily close below this level, it could signal a shift in the current positive sentiment. The area around 145.216, last week’s high, is another important reference point. If prices dip below both of these levels during the day, it suggests that the drive to push the pair higher may be weakening. We are also closely monitoring the 200-hour moving average, which briefly fell during the Asian hours but was quickly reclaimed. This average serves as a key reference point for short-term trading; if it is broken and not regained, it could shift strategies, especially for leveraged products. If the price drops below this average again, recent buyers may exit, increasing volatility. Given all of this, price movements around the next 30 to 40 pips are crucial. There’s little uncertainty here—the pair is at a pivotal point, and its behavior around these levels will influence the next adjustments. Staying patient and watching for clear breaks or rejections at key levels will allow us to act accordingly. This isn’t a time for wild guesses or vague forecasts. We need defined moves supported by real momentum. That, and only that, will justify larger trading decisions. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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