USDJPY is on the rise again after a recent dip caused by dovish comments from FOMC Vice Chair Christopher Waller. The dip found support at 145.375, which is the 50% midpoint of the price movement from May. This support has rekindled bullish sentiment. The pair has bounced back, setting new highs for the day and week, the best seen since May 29. It’s currently testing a crucial area between 145.919 and 146.25. This includes the significant 61.8% retracement level of the May decline at 146.148. If it breaks through this level, buyers will face the next challenge.

This Week’s Performance

This week, USDJPY has climbed from last Friday’s close of 144.06, showing strong bullish momentum. The price has risen for 4 out of 5 trading days and was up 5 out of the last 6 days. Key resistance levels are the range between 145.919 and 146.25, along with the 61.8% retracement at 146.148. Major support levels include yesterday’s high at 146.77, the 50% midpoint at 145.375, and the 100-hour moving average around 145.05. If it breaks above the current zone, the next targets could be 147.20 to 147.38. However, if it fails to surpass 146.25, this could lead to short-term selling pressure. The recent recovery in USDJPY shows a solid response from traders after the earlier dip caused by Waller’s comments. That downward move found support right at the halfway retracement of the May high to low, a level that often indicates strong conviction. Staying above 145.375 was crucial as it showed buyers were willing to step back in despite earlier hesitation. What we’ve observed is a steady upward move, not just in sudden bursts but consistently over several days, pushing into a previously tricky area. The range between 145.919 and 146.25 is significant, marked by past trading hesitations. Breaking through this zone could lead to a stronger move toward the next resistance at 147.20 to 147.38.

Market Structure and Potential Moves

The upward movement has followed a clear structure. We’ve seen gains in four of the last five sessions, with the one exception likely a brief pause rather than a turnaround. The price has been rising steadily without testing key supports below. The 100-hour moving average around 145.05 hasn’t been touched since the rebound started, indicating continued short-term momentum. With the 61.8% retracement at 146.148 now under pressure, attention is on whether sustained activity above this level can guide fresh movement. There’s a significant difference between briefly reaching a level and staying above it – past attempts to hold above this level have sometimes failed. To use this range as a launch pad for further gains, it’s essential to focus on gradual advances and maintaining previously conquered ground. If hesitation sets in and 146.25 becomes a barrier, profit-taking may occur, especially since the recent gains have created a series of untested higher lows. The first level to watch would be yesterday’s high, which might now serve not only as resistance but also as potential support. Passing through this could then lead to further movement toward the 50% area at 145.375. Before that happens, we might see short-term traders focus on intra-day support levels, particularly around 145.80. Currently, the outlook is positive, but it hinges on keeping pressure on sellers and avoiding a return to uncertainty. In the near term, paying attention to short-term closes will be more important than long-term projections. It’s not just about where the price might go but whether it can remain above critical battlegrounds from earlier this year. If these levels break down, looking for reactions rather than predictions will be the first clue. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now