The USDJPY rose as European trading ended for the day. It surpassed the 200-hour moving average at 147.49, reaching the 100-hour moving average at 147.646. The price paused at this level as traders considered the next move. If the price breaks above the 100-hour moving average, the next target will be the 38.2% retracement and swing area around 148.000. Traders who sold after Powell’s speech may feel let down as buyers regain control.

Support And Resistance Levels

If the price drops below the 200-hour moving average with momentum, the next target area would be 147.075. If it breaks this level, watch for the next zone between 146.61 and 146.75. As of today, August 25, 2025, the USDJPY is stalling at the 100-hour moving average around 147.65. This level is crucial, and traders should consider positions based on whether it breaks decisively. The immediate range is closely defined between the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages. For those expecting a move higher, recent data supports a stronger dollar. Last week’s US Core PCE data for July showed a rise to 2.9%, slightly above the 2.8% forecast, putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep its hawkish stance. A solid break above 147.65 could signal a buy for short-dated call options targeting the 148.00 strike price for September expiration. On the flip side, if it fails at this resistance, the price may drop back toward the 200-hour MA at 147.49. Given Japan’s Core CPI holds steady at 2.1% year-over-year, the Bank of Japan is unlikely to become more aggressive. A break below the 200-hour MA with momentum could make buying September put options at a 147.00 strike an attractive choice.

Volatility And Market Considerations

We should recall Japan’s sharp intervention by the Ministry of Finance in late 2022, which happened when the pair rose above 150. This historical caution suggests that selling call spreads above 148.50 may be a smart strategy to take advantage of limited upside potential. Implied volatility for USDJPY options is likely to rise as we approach the US Non-Farm Payrolls report in early September. It’s a tactical move to establish positions now, before that volatility is fully factored in. The outcomes of that jobs report could provide the needed catalyst to break the current range. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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