Nvidia has driven the AI rally for the past three years, even as US growth stocks have weakened in 2026. The NASDAQ 100 has dropped more than 3% over the past month and is down for the year. Analysts expect Nvidia earnings per share (EPS) of about $1.54, up 70% year over year. Revenue is forecast to rise 68% to $66.12 billion.

Options Setup For Earnings Night

Demand for AI chips and data-centre servers is still the main driver. UBS estimates direct AI capex at $423 billion in 2025, rising to more than $570 billion in 2026. Some forecasts go as high as $700 billion. The backdrop is also tense. Markets are pricing in geopolitical risk tied to a possible attack on Iran and renewed efforts to bring back US tariffs. Since last November, investors have rotated out of AI-linked stocks and into consumer staples, utilities, and healthcare. Guidance matters as much as the headline results. Wall Street expects Q1 revenue of $71 billion, about $5 billion higher quarter on quarter. The market reaction is likely to hinge on this: above $71 billion could be received well, while below $70 billion could draw a sharp negative response. Gross margin is another focus point, after Q3 came in at 73.6% and the company targeted the mid-70% range. Other key topics include PC system-on-a-chip work with Intel, sales in China, Vera Rubin timing, and an OpenAI commitment reportedly reduced from $100 billion to $30 billion.

Key Levels And What Sets The Tone

Key technical levels include support from $164 to $171, resistance near $211, and a longer-term level near $235. Traders are also watching the 200-day and 50-day SMAs. With the NASDAQ 100 already down more than 3% over the past month, markets look nervous heading into Nvidia’s earnings tonight, February 25, 2026. Many traders see this report as a major test of the AI story, which raises the odds of a large move and keeps volatility elevated. The numbers may look strong, but forward guidance for Q1 is likely to decide the direction. Bulls will want revenue guidance above $71 billion to rebuild momentum. A guide below $70 billion could spark a fast sell-off. That range also gives options traders clear reference points when choosing strikes. This setup echoes 2023, when Nvidia’s May earnings surprise sent the stock up more than 24% in a day and lifted the broader market. Past reports have produced large swings, which helps explain why implied volatility is high ahead of tonight’s release. Technically, $211 is the key resistance level. If guidance is strong, call options above that level could benefit, with the next resistance near $235. On the downside, the $164 to $171 area is the key support zone, now aligned with the 200-day moving average. This is not only about Nvidia. Many investors treat the report as a read-through on the entire AI spending cycle. A strong result could lift other major AI names like Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon, and it could also move the QQQ ETF, which offers another way to trade the outcome. A miss could speed up the shift away from tech that has been underway since last November. Beyond the headline guidance, the tone on gross margins and China sales during the conference call will matter. Any weakness there, or an unclear explanation for the reduced OpenAI commitment, could drag on sentiment even if the top-line figures look good. The first market reaction after the release may shape positioning into March. It will help decide whether traders rotate back into the AI trade that defined 2025 or stay defensive in areas like utilities and healthcare. The next few hours could set the tone for the next few weeks. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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