WTI Crude Oil saw a small increase during the Asian session, briefly ending a four-day drop. However, prices are still below $60.00, a crucial level for a sustained upward trend. Technically, WTI is in a downtrend within a channel since late October. Recent price movements below the 100-period SMA suggest a continued downward trend. If prices rise to around $60.30, sellers may step in, while $60.65 acts as a resistance point.

Price Trends and Market Factors

If prices break through the resistance at $60.65, a short-covering rally could aim for the $61.00 mark. A support level is set at $59.00, with additional risks if prices drop to $58.35. WTI Oil, a crucial global benchmark from the US, is affected by supply-demand dynamics and the value of the US Dollar. OPEC’s decisions on production quotas also influence supply and price. Inventory reports from the API and EIA impact WTI prices as they reflect demand levels. The EIA data is considered more accurate and is taken more seriously by the market. OPEC also collaborates with countries like Russia to manage market stability through production changes. West Texas Intermediate crude oil is struggling to stay above $60.00, creating opportunities for bearish positions. The current trend has been clearly downward since late October 2025. Any rise toward the $60.30-$60.65 range is likely to be brief and should be viewed as a chance to take short positions.

Market Strategy and Forecast

This negative perspective is supported by recent data. On Wednesday, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an unexpected increase in crude inventories of 1.8 million barrels, indicating weaker demand than anticipated. This contradicts the typical seasonal draw we see this time of year and supports lower price projections. Globally, economic signals are raising concerns about oil demand. China’s industrial output for October 2025 was slightly below expectations. Additionally, the strong US Dollar, with the DXY index above 107, makes oil more expensive for foreign buyers. This situation echoes the demand issues that affected the market in the summer of 2024. For those trading derivatives, the current setup suggests that buying put options targeting around $58.00 could be a smart strategy. Alternatively, selling call credit spreads with strike prices well above the key resistance at $61.00 could benefit from the likelihood that prices will remain restricted. We believe the path ahead will lean downward through November. Looking ahead, the OPEC+ meeting in early December will be another key event for the market. However, early comments from member delegates indicate little interest in deeper production cuts beyond past agreements. Unless an unexpected cut is announced, we expect sellers to maintain control and possibly test the support level around $57.35 in the coming weeks. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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