West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil prices are currently down, trading around $62.90 per barrel. This drop is mainly due to expected production increases from OPEC+ and the restart of oil exports from Iraq’s Kurdistan region. After a 2.5-year pause, the Kurdistan region has resumed exports, boosting market supply. OPEC+ is likely to approve a production increase of at least 137,000 barrels per day at their next meeting.

What Is WTI Oil

WTI Oil is a type of crude oil that is widely traded around the world. It is known for being “light” and “sweet” and is mostly sourced from the United States. WTI is often used as a benchmark to set oil prices. Several factors influence WTI Oil prices, including global supply and demand, political instability, and the US Dollar’s value. Decisions made by OPEC regarding production limits also affect prices significantly. Weekly oil inventory reports from the API and EIA give insights into supply and demand. The API report is released on Tuesdays, while the EIA report comes out on Wednesdays. These reports can cause shifts in market prices based on changes in inventory. With WTI crude oil showing weakness, market prices reflect an expected increase in supply. The potential rise in production from OPEC+ and the renewed exports from Iraq’s Kurdistan region are significant factors. Additionally, the latest EIA report from September 24, 2025, indicated an unexpected inventory increase of 2.1 million barrels, suggesting that supply is exceeding current demand.

OPEC+ Meeting Observations

We are closely monitoring the upcoming OPEC+ meeting for confirmation of a production increase scheduled for November. Historically, during the 2023-2024 period, the group’s adherence to quotas varied, but recent data from August 2025 shows compliance is above 95%. Therefore, if a production increase is announced, we can expect actual supply to rise in an already saturated market. On the demand side, the outlook is becoming less clear, dampening the earlier optimism. China’s manufacturing PMI for September 2025 was just below expectations at 49.8, indicating a slight contraction in industrial activity. This decrease in demand suggests that the global economy might struggle to take in the extra barrels that are about to be released. Considering the strong pressures from rising supply and weakening demand, traders should get ready for continued price pressure or sideways movements in the market. While geopolitical events, such as past US-led peace initiatives, can cause momentary price spikes, current market dynamics lean toward downward trends. Strategies that can thrive in this scenario include buying put options for safety or selling call spreads above key resistance levels. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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