Nvidia (NVDA) began the week at $190.00 ahead of its earnings call on Wednesday. The stock has a nearby resistance level at $193.00.
For Q4 2025, Nvidia is expected to report $65.60 billion in revenue and earnings of $1.53 per share. That compares with Q3 revenue of $57 billion, a 14% increase.
Nvidia has confirmed partnerships with Meta, Anthropic, and OpenAI tied to its Blackwell and Rubin GPUs. Late in 2025, the Trump administration allowed sales of H200 GPUs to “approved customers” in China.
Michael Burry held a bearish position against NVDA worth about $187 million. The last clear breakout above $193.00 was in October 2025, when the stock hit an all-time high of $212.19.
The 10-day and 25-day moving averages have crossed higher. At the time of writing, NVDA was still trading near $190.00.
With NVDA at $190 ahead of Wednesday’s earnings, our focus is on short-term options trades. Expectations for record revenue and earnings are high, and that is raising market pressure. Many traders are positioned for a breakout above the key $193 resistance level.
If we are bullish, one approach is to buy call options that expire shortly after the announcement. Strike prices at $195 or $200 could benefit from a positive earnings surprise. Nvidia has often beaten analyst estimates in recent quarters, sometimes by more than 15%. This would also line up with the recent bullish technical signal: the 10-day moving average crossing above the 25-day average.
Still, talk of an “AI bubble,” plus Burry’s bearish view last year, supports the idea of a “sell the news” drop. The options market reflects this risk. Implied volatility for this week’s contracts has jumped above 90%, which signals traders expect a big move in either direction. Because of that, some of us are buying put options near the $185 strike as a hedge, or as a direct bet on weaker-than-expected results.
We saw in October 2025 that a breakout above $193 helped drive the stock to a new all-time high. That rally followed partnership news and the late-2025 easing of sales limits to China. A similar move could happen again, but the risk feels higher this time.
A more neutral strategy we are considering is a long straddle. This means buying both a call and a put at the same strike price, such as $190. The trade can profit if the stock makes a large move either up or down, so it is mainly a bet on volatility after earnings. It is expensive, but it avoids having to correctly predict the market’s direction.
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