Ceasefire Hopes Fade
The move weakened after Iran rejected the proposal, with Press TV reporting Tehran would end the conflict only on its own terms. Iran’s conditions include stopping attacks and assassinations, guarantees the war will not restart, compensation for damages, an end to fighting across regional fronts, and recognition of control over the Strait of Hormuz. Uncertainty supported the US Dollar, while high Oil prices kept inflation risks in place, limiting follow-through buying in Silver. Technical signals were neutral to mildly bearish, with price below the 50-day SMA at $85.51 and the 100-day SMA at $74.33. RSI was 40 and ADX was in the low 20s, pointing to weak momentum. Resistance sits at the 100-day SMA, with $80 next, while support is near $66.01, then $61.01, and the 200-day SMA at $57.99. The rejection of the US ceasefire plan by Iran signals that geopolitical tensions will remain the primary driver for silver in the coming weeks. We are seeing this reflected in options pricing, with the Silver Volatility Index (SVIX) recently spiking to 42, a high not seen since the conflict began late in 2025. This environment suggests that outright directional bets are risky, and strategies profiting from price swings should be considered.Options Strategy Outlook
Iran’s firm stance, particularly its demand for control over the Strait of Hormuz, is keeping WTI crude oil prices elevated above $115 a barrel, sustaining inflation fears. This provides a fundamental reason for the US Dollar’s continued strength, which acts as a headwind for silver prices. Last week’s Commitment of Traders report showed managed money funds trimmed their net-long silver futures positions by 12%, highlighting growing institutional caution. Given the technical weakness below the 100-day moving average near $74.33, traders could consider buying put options to speculate on a retest of the $61 low from earlier this week. Conversely, call options with strike prices above $75 offer a defined-risk way to play a potential breakout driven by any unexpected de-escalation. The wide and uncertain price range makes long straddle positions, which benefit from a large move in either direction, an attractive strategy. We can look back at the market’s reaction during the initial months of the Ukraine conflict in 2022 for a potential roadmap. Precious metals saw sharp, headline-driven swings in both directions before a clearer trend emerged. This historical precedent reinforces the idea that for now, nimble strategies are likely to be more effective than holding long-term directional positions. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.
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