WTI Crude Oil fell over 3% on Friday but still rose by 2.25% this week. Prices are approaching $66.70 after dropping from nearly $70 earlier in the week. Geopolitical tensions have increased following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of nuclear submarines being positioned near Russia. This has raised energy security concerns. Trump’s messages on Truth Social added to the market volatility, especially since he also warned of tariffs on countries still buying Russian oil. From a technical perspective, WTI is currently forming a symmetrical triangle, with prices moving towards the lower edge. If the current support fails, we could see a bearish breakout down to the $63.00-$60.00 range. The support zone is strengthened by the 50-day and 100-day EMAs, which are around $66.08 and $66.12. If buyers can defend this area, we might see prices bounce back towards $70 or even the June high of $76.74. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is slightly above neutral at 50.30, while the MACD indicator shows diminishing bullish momentum. This indicates that there is no clear market direction, which reflects the overall uncertainties. As of August 2, 2025, the oil market is experiencing a tug-of-war. The geopolitical tension from the White House’s remarks on Russia is pushing prices upwards. However, China’s July manufacturing PMI data was a bit disappointing at 50.2, signaling slower factory activity and raising concerns about demand. Given the current situation, it’s wise to be cautious in the coming weeks. If prices drop below the critical support around $66, it could quickly fall to the $60-$63 range. This level is important as WTI consolidated in a similar area back in late 2023 before making its next major move. The market seems doubtful that President Trump’s tariff threats will significantly reduce Russian oil supply in the short term. In 2022, price caps were avoided, and recent shipping data shows that Russian oil exports to Asia remained strong in July 2025, averaging over 3.4 million barrels per day. Along with OPEC+ maintaining its production cuts since June 2025, this creates a very tense supply situation. For those considering a rebound, buying short-dated call options could be a smart move. This strategy allows you to take advantage of a bounce off the strong support at the $66 moving averages without needing to invest a lot. The first target would be to retest the $70 psychological level, with the June 2025 high near $77 as the secondary goal. Technical indicators show market indecision, with the RSI close to neutral and bullish momentum fading. Therefore, it’s best to avoid making big, bold moves until prices break clearly out of their current triangle pattern. Staying flexible and ready to respond to a breakout in either direction is crucial.

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