### WTI Crude Oil Futures Analysis WTI crude oil futures closed at $64.60, up by $0.45, which is a 0.70% increase for the day. During the trading session, the price reached a high of $64.70 and dipped to a low of $63.35. Prices briefly fell below the 100-hour moving average of $63.85 but stayed above the 200-hour moving average at $63.33, helping to stabilize the market. The rebound is focused around the 38.2% retracement level from July 30 at $64.91, with resistance seen between $63.85 and $65.27. If the price breaks above this range, it will aim for the $65.10 resistance level established on Monday. Buyers need to surpass this level to gain further momentum. Recent weekly inventory data showed another drop in both crude and gasoline stocks. At this moment, WTI crude oil is at a crucial turning point. The defense of the 200-hour moving average indicates underlying strength, but the resistance near $65.27 poses a significant challenge. Traders should keep an eye on the $64.91 level; if it is not broken in the coming days, it may lead to renewed selling pressure. ### Crude Oil Market Dynamics The inventory drawdowns mentioned earlier support the recent EIA data, which reported a surprising draw of 4.1 million barrels this week. This suggests a tightening market, hinting at potential price increases. This aligns with recent summer trends, where global demand has remained strong at nearly 104 million barrels per day. However, mixed economic signals are creating uncertainty, leading to range-bound trading. Recent US PMI data showed a slight decrease in manufacturing, raising fears about future demand. So, despite positive inventory reports, prices have struggled to break higher. For derivative traders, this means exercising caution before making major bets until a breakout is confirmed. We are also noticing an increase in options volumes, particularly with strategies that benefit from rising volatility, like strangles centered around the $64 strike. This indicates that the market anticipates a significant price move but is uncertain about the direction. This price consolidation is reminiscent of the trading conditions in mid-2023, where similar patterns preceded sharp moves. Back then, market sentiment shifted quickly due to conflicting indicators, like tight supply from OPEC+ cuts and recession worries in the West. Additionally, we must consider the ongoing uncertainty regarding the upcoming OPEC+ meeting in September 2025. Unconfirmed reports of disagreements on production quotas for Q4 may keep buyers cautious for now. Any news from this front could act as the catalyst needed to break the current stalemate. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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