WTI crude traded in a tight $62.00–$63.00 range on Monday. Moves above $63.00 were limited, while support near $62.00 held. Prices were still about 4% below last week’s high of $65.65. Markets waited for updates on US-Iran nuclear talks. Trading was also quiet because many Asian markets were closed for Lunar New Year, and US banks were shut for the President’s Day holiday. Iranian officials said talks included possible deals in energy, mining, and aircraft.

Geopolitical Risks And Market Positioning

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the US prefers a negotiated outcome, but did not rule out military action. The US sent a second aircraft carrier to the Middle East. Reports also said President Trump would support Israeli strikes on Iran’s missile program if talks fail. Rumours that OPEC+ could restart output increases from April also pressured prices. The idea is that supply would rise in response to expectations of stronger global demand during the western summer. WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate. It is a US “light” and “sweet” crude, distributed through the Cushing hub. Its price is influenced by supply and demand, geopolitics, OPEC decisions, the US Dollar, and weekly inventory reports from the API (Tuesday) and the EIA (Wednesday). The two reports are within 1% of each other about 75% of the time. WTI is showing a familiar pattern: a narrow range, held back by geopolitical uncertainty. In 2025, markets saw similar price action while waiting for clear signals on major supply events. For now, the US-Iran negotiations remain the main catalyst that could break this consolidation. Recent Energy Information Administration (EIA) data adds uncertainty. In the report for the week ending February 13, 2026, inventories unexpectedly fell by 2.1 million barrels, despite forecasts for a small build. This points to tighter physical supply. At the same time, global demand figures for January 2026 showed a 1.5% year-over-year increase. Together, these factors are helping support prices.

Options Strategies For A Breakout

For derivatives traders, this setup suggests implied volatility may be too low ahead of a major news event. One possible strategy is a long straddle: buying a call and a put with the same strike price and expiration. This can benefit from a large move in either direction—down if talks succeed, or up if talks fail. OPEC+ also recently kept production steady at its late-January meeting, saying market risks look balanced. This is more cautious than in parts of 2025, when the group was quicker to raise output to cool prices. Their pause suggests they may also be waiting for clarity on Iran before acting. The near-term focus is on options that expire after the expected conclusion of the nuclear talks. Any sign of a breakthrough could increase downside risk below the $62.00 support level. On the other hand, signs the talks are failing could make calls targeting the prior resistance near $65.65 more attractive. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now