The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil is around $73.70 now due to easing tensions between the US and Iran. The White House’s comments about possible negotiations with Iran have temporarily slowed the rise in oil prices. An Ascending Triangle pattern on the hourly chart shows less market uncertainty. If the oil price breaks above June 19’s high of $75.54, it might rise to $77 and even $80.

Possibility of Downtrend

If the price drops below $71.20, it could slide to $67.85. The US Dollar Index has corrected to about 98.60 from the week’s peak, lowering demand for safe-haven assets like the US Dollar. WTI oil is known as “light” and “sweet” due to its quality. It mainly comes from the United States and serves as a benchmark for oil markets. Oil prices are affected by supply and demand, geopolitical events, and the value of the US Dollar. OPEC’s production choices also play a role. Weekly data from the American Petroleum Institute and the Energy Information Agency influences WTI prices. This data highlights supply and demand changes, affecting price fluctuations.

Impact of Recent Developments

The recent rise in WTI prices, now near $73.70, is largely thanks to a calming of US rhetoric towards Iran. As diplomatic tones improve, speculative buying has slowed, stopping a more rapid price increase. This pause, though modest, shows how sensitive the market is to expectations and confirmations. The Ascending Triangle pattern indicates improved confidence among market players. It reflects a phase of price consolidation that could lead to a breakout upward if momentum continues. We’ve noticed higher lows being formed, narrowing prices against horizontal resistance. A clear breakout above $75.54, the June 19 high, would open the door to $77 and possibly $80, provided trading volume supports this move. This level serves as a filter — above it, sellers shouldn’t outnumber buyers. However, if prices fall below $71.20, our view would shift to a defensive stance, focusing on $67.85, where previous demand has appeared. Changes in currency values are important to track too. The US Dollar Index has dropped to about 98.60 after rising earlier this week. This pullback alleviates pressure on commodities priced in dollars, making oil slightly more appealing for international buyers. Still, any downward movement in the dollar won’t alter the overall trend unless it extends significantly. Supply remains stable but is not static. Weekly updates from the Energy Information Agency and the American Petroleum Institute give us insights into current reality, reflecting or opposing broader market sentiment. Significant increases or decreases in crude inventories reveal changes in consumption and production, making these reports predictive in nature. OPEC remains a key influence, even when they’re not actively publicizing decisions. Their actions or anticipated inactions shape future pricing. The market usually reacts quickly to any changes in production, especially when inventories are tight, like in parts of the US Gulf Coast. Currently, the technical outlook leans towards an upward trend, but sustaining momentum depends on effectively overcoming short-term resistance. Trading volume, market breadth, and upcoming macroeconomic signals — including adjustments in risk sentiment and inflation estimates — will determine if bullish traders maintain control. Additionally, let’s keep an eye on spreads. A continued flattening or backwardation in futures could signal expectations of tighter supply, which would support directional trading. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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