West Texas Intermediate was trading near $89.95 on Monday, up 1.57% and having earlier risen by more than 1.5%, as renewed Israel-Iran friction and Houthi actions lifted crude. The Iran-backed Houthis claimed attacks on Israel and said Israeli vessels were banned from the Red Sea, while further strikes between Israel and Iran kept risk premia elevated. Iran’s foreign ministry said a ceasefire had been repeatedly violated, and Iran’s parliamentary speaker warned US and allied bases could become “legitimate targets”, sharpening focus on potential disruption around the Strait of Hormuz.
Attention also fell on OPEC+, which set a July output rise of 188,000 barrels per day, though the move was treated as cautious against the security backdrop. Prices later gave back much of the advance after Fars News reported Iran’s armed forces had ended operations against Israel, while warning of a tougher response if Israel attacked Lebanon, and as US President Donald Trump urged an immediate halt to hostilities. WTI slipped from an intraday peak near $93.50 as traders reassessed near-term supply risks, even as commentary in the market pointed to declining global inventories.
Geopolitical Risk Premium and Market Volatility
Given the tensions in the Middle East, we see the geopolitical risk premium as the main driver for WTI prices, which are holding near $90 a barrel. The modest OPEC+ production increase of 188,000 barrels per day for July is being largely ignored by the market. This focus on conflict over fundamentals creates a volatile trading environment.
We should respond to this by buying volatility, as sharp price swings in both directions are likely on any new headline. The CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX) is elevated, recently trading around 45, which is significantly above its historical average, signaling market expectation of continued price turbulence. Therefore, strategies like long straddles or strangles could be effective.
Our primary position should anticipate further price spikes due to potential supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. We are buying out-of-the-money call options with strike prices at $95 and $100 for the coming weeks. This approach allows us to profit from a potential rally while limiting our maximum loss to the premium paid.
However, we must also hedge against a sudden de-escalation, as seen when prices recently fell from $93.50 on unconfirmed reports. Buying protective puts or establishing bear put spreads can insulate our portfolio from a rapid price drop if tensions unexpectedly cool. This is a necessary precaution in a news-driven market.
Market Fundamentals and Historical Context
The underlying market fundamentals support a bullish view even without the conflict. The latest EIA report showed a crude inventory draw of 3.1 million barrels, exceeding analyst expectations and pointing to a tightening physical market. This structural deficit adds a solid floor under the current prices.
Historically, geopolitical events in the region have led to prolonged price increases, such as the price doubling in late 1990 during the Gulf War. While history is not a perfect guide, it reminds us that the market can react severely to perceived threats to oil supply. We should remain positioned for heightened risk and the potential for a significant upward move.
