WTI traded near $62.80 per barrel in Asian hours on Monday, after opening above the previous close. Price moves were limited because US markets were closed for Presidents’ Day. Trading in Asia was also lighter due to Lunar New Year holidays in China, South Korea, and Taiwan.
Focus is on the second round of US-Iran talks in Geneva on Tuesday. Tehran said it may accept nuclear concessions if the US addresses sanctions. President Donald Trump warned of possible strikes if talks fail, and the US has increased its military presence in the region.
Geopolitical Risks And Market Focus
US-brokered Russia-Ukraine talks are also set to resume on Tuesday. Expectations for a fast deal are low, and a near-term return of Russian oil to global markets looks unlikely. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico said Ukraine is delaying the restart of a pipeline that carries Russian oil to Eastern Europe. He said the delay is meant to pressure Hungary over its position on Ukraine’s EU membership.
Supply is also in focus after Reuters reported that OPEC+ is leaning toward restarting output increases from April, after a three-month pause. The move is tied to planning for peak summer demand.
WTI is a US crude benchmark produced in the United States and distributed through the Cushing hub. US inventory reports from the API and EIA can move prices. Their numbers are within 1% of each other about 75% of the time.
A year ago, in early 2025, oil was holding near $63 a barrel as markets waited for US-Iran talks. Those talks later failed, which helped create the more tense backdrop seen today. With WTI now near $82, the drivers behind prices are clearer.
Key Indicators To Watch
The failure of the 2025 Geneva talks has kept a risk premium in the market. OPEC+, which once considered raising output, later changed course to support prices. Last month, the group agreed to extend its existing production cuts. That keeps about 2 million barrels per day off the market through the second quarter.
In the coming weeks, inventory data will be a key sign of near-term market balance. Last week, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a surprise drop in US crude inventories of 3.1 million barrels, versus expectations for a small build. Another draw would suggest strong demand. That could support prices and make call options more attractive.
On the demand side, conditions also look stronger than a year ago. The International Energy Agency’s latest forecast sees global demand rising by 1.3 million barrels per day this year. Much of that growth is expected to come from China and India. This suggests that price dips could be brief and may attract buyers.
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